Bournemouth
vs
AC Milan
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 1–2 AC Milan
The model makes it 31% Bournemouth, 28% draw, 41% AC Milan — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.25, AC Milan 1.51.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to AC Milan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 10th on 3 points from 1 game; AC Milan are 30th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chelsea.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sassuolo.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Bournemouth
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
AC Milan
- L0-2Benfica16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.86 against 7.11 for AC Milan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Bournemouth and 1.51 for AC Milan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.03 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Milan rate 1.23 and 0.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bournemouth, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.51 for AC Milan. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.73 for AC Milan.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · AC Milan away
League matches only, this season — Bournemouth in the Premier League, AC Milan in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Bournemouth 6 in the Premier League, AC Milan 6 in the Serie A.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Bournemouth have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- at Manchester United25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Aston Villa28 Oct · League Cupwin 39%
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sparta Praha5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
AC Milan
- at Udinese25 Oct · Serie Awin 47%
- vs Bologna28 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
- vs Inter31 Oct · Serie Awin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.