Juventus
vs
Rennes
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Juventus 2–0 Rennes
The model makes it 64% Juventus, 21% draw, 15% Rennes — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Juventus 2.46, Rennes 0.97.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Juventus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Juventus are top on 3 points from 1 game; Rennes are 18th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cagliari.
- Rennes have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Auxerre.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventus vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 64% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Rennes
Juventus
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Rennes
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Juventus and Rennes
Juventus
GoalsAssists
- R. Kolo Muani11
Rennes
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Juventus carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.87 for Rennes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for Juventus and 0.97 for Rennes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventus rate 1.31 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rennes rate 1.15 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Juventus against 0.97 for Rennes. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/1.13 for Rennes.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Rennes away
League matches only, this season — Juventus in the Serie A, Rennes in the Ligue 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Juventus 6 in the Serie A, Rennes 6 in the Ligue 1.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Rennes have let in 3 there.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Juventus have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- at Lecce25 Oct · Serie Awin 58%
- at Genoa28 Oct · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Napoli1 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Rennes
- vs Strasbourg25 Oct · Ligue 1win 47%
- at Nice31 Oct · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.