Omonia Nicosia
vs
Benfica
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Omonia Nicosia 1–2 Benfica
The model makes it 36% Omonia Nicosia, 27% draw, 37% Benfica — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Omonia Nicosia 1.50, Benfica 1.52.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Omonia Nicosia and Benfica are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Omonia Nicosia are 16th on 3 points from 1 game; Benfica are 7th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Karmiotissa.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
Benfica
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Omonia Nicosia and Benfica
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- J. Balkovec10
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- J. Kamiński11
- D. Lukebakio10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Omonia Nicosia carry a model rating of 7.07 against 7.23 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Omonia Nicosia and 1.52 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia Nicosia rate 1.19 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.62 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Omonia Nicosia against 1.52 for Benfica. Omonia Nicosia's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.76 for Benfica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia Nicosia at home · Benfica away
League matches only, this season — Omonia Nicosia in the 1. Division, Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Omonia Nicosia 5 in the 1. Division, Benfica 8 in the Primeira Liga.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Omonia Nicosia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Omonia Nicosia
- at AEK Larnaca26 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 38%
- vs AEL31 Oct · 1. Divisionwin 76%
- at NEC Nijmegen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
Benfica
- at Santa Clara26 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 50%
- vs Alverca2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 70%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 64%
- at Estrela8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.