Libertad
vs
Emelec
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Libertad 1–0 Emelec
The model makes it 55% Libertad, 25% draw, 20% Emelec — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Libertad 1.88, Emelec 0.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Libertad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Libertad's rating is built from 73 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Emelec's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Libertad 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Emelec 1–2 Libertad.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Libertad vs Emelec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Libertad vs Emelec
Libertad
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Guayaquil City FC17 October 2026
- W3-0Leones del Norte9 October 2026
Emelec
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Leones del Norte18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Guayaquil City FC10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Libertad vs Emelec
- 20 September 2026Emelec 1–2 LibertadLiga Pro
- 4 September 2026Libertad 1–1 EmelecLiga Pro
- 10 May 2026Emelec 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
- 3 August 2025Libertad 1–2 EmelecLiga Pro
- 12 April 2025Emelec 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro
- 30 November 2024Libertad 2–1 EmelecLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Libertad and Emelec
Libertad
GoalsAssists
- Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín122
- G. Cortéz65
Emelec
GoalsAssists
- R. Carrillo133
- L. Klimowicz62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Libertad carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.39 for Emelec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Libertad and 0.94 for Emelec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Libertad rate 0.76 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Emelec rate 0.61 and 1.52.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Libertad against 0.94 for Emelec. Libertad's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.52 for Emelec.
How the model reaches 55% for Libertad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Libertad's ratings take away 13 points and Emelec's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Libertad's ratings31%−13
- Emelec's ratings55%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Libertad at home · Emelec away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Libertad 33, Emelec 33.
Libertad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Emelec have let in 11 there.
Emelec score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Libertad have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.