Leones del Norte
vs
Guayaquil City FC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Leones del Norte 2–1 Guayaquil City FC
The model makes it 43% Leones del Norte, 27% draw, 30% Guayaquil City FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leones del Norte 1.62, Guayaquil City FC 1.26.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Leones del Norte's rating is built from 33 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Guayaquil City FC's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Leones del Norte.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leones del Norte at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
All competitions we cover
- L1-3Emelec18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Libertad9 October 2026
Guayaquil City FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Libertad17 October 2026
- W3-2Emelec10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC
- 19 September 2026Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 23 July 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
- 23 March 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
- 29 October 2025Leones del Norte 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
- 27 August 2025Guayaquil City FC 2–1 Leones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B
- 23 July 2025Leones del Norte 2–1 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
Leading scorers: Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC
Leones del Norte
GoalsAssists
- Juan Luis Anangonó León100
Guayaquil City FC
GoalsAssists
- E. Mero134
- D. Dorregaray82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leones del Norte carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.4 for Guayaquil City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Leones del Norte and 1.26 for Guayaquil City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leones del Norte rate 0.58 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guayaquil City FC rate 0.69 and 1.72.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leones del Norte the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Leones del Norte against 1.26 for Guayaquil City FC. Leones del Norte's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.72 for Guayaquil City FC.
How the model reaches 43% for Leones del Norte to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leones del Norte to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Leones del Norte's ratings take away 23 points and Guayaquil City FC's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Leones del Norte's ratings21%−23
- Guayaquil City FC's ratings43%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Leones del Norte at home · Guayaquil City FC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Leones del Norte 33, Guayaquil City FC 33.
Leones del Norte score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Guayaquil City FC have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.