Deportivo Cuenca
vs
Orense SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Orense SC
The model makes it 42% Deportivo Cuenca, 28% draw, 30% Orense SC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Cuenca 1.46, Orense SC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Deportivo Cuenca's rating is built from 74 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Orense SC's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Deportivo Cuenca are 11th on 44 points from 34 games; Orense SC are 13th on 38 points from 34 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Deportivo Cuenca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Manta FC.
- Orense SC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Delfin SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Orense SC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 October 2026, ended Orense SC 0–0 Deportivo Cuenca.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cuenca at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Liga Pro
- W2-0away to Manta FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Tecnico Universitario16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026
- D1-1Mushuc Runa SC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to LDU de Quito13 September 2026
Orense SC
Liga Pro
- W4-0Delfin SC24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Manta FC21 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad Catolica Quito15 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cuenca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cuenca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Cuenca had two goals or fewer.
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Cuenca | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC
- 11 October 2026Orense SC 0–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 16 August 2026Orense SC 2–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 22 April 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–3 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 31 August 2025Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 10 May 2025Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 10 August 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Orense SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cuenca and Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera112
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Cuenca carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.41 for Orense SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.14 for Orense SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cuenca rate 0.53 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orense SC rate 0.69 and 1.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cuenca the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Deportivo Cuenca against 1.14 for Orense SC. Deportivo Cuenca's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.69 for Orense SC.
How the model reaches 42% for Deportivo Cuenca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Deportivo Cuenca to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Deportivo Cuenca's ratings take away 23 points and Orense SC's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Deportivo Cuenca's ratings21%−23
- Orense SC's ratings42%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Cuenca at home · Orense SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Deportivo Cuenca 33, Orense SC 32.
Deportivo Cuenca score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Orense SC have let in 5 there.
Orense SC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Deportivo Cuenca have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Cuenca
- at Tecnico Universitario22 Nov · Liga Prowin 35%
- vs Manta FC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 51%
- vs Delfin SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 47%
- at Mushuc Runa SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 27%
Orense SC
- vs Mushuc Runa SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 45%
- at Delfin SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 35%
- at Tecnico Universitario6 Dec · Liga Prowin 38%
- vs Manta FC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.