Tecnico Universitario
vs
Manta FC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Manta FC
The model makes it 45% Tecnico Universitario, 28% draw, 27% Manta FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tecnico Universitario 1.56, Manta FC 1.08.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Tecnico Universitario's rating is built from 69 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Manta FC's from 70, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Tecnico Universitario are 15th on 33 points from 33 games; Manta FC are 16th on 27 points from 34 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Tecnico Universitario are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Manta FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico Universitario.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tecnico Universitario at 45% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
Liga Pro
- L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026
- D1-1Delfin SC20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Leones del Norte13 September 2026
- L1-3LDU de Quito5 September 2026
Manta FC
Liga Pro
- L0-2Deportivo Cuenca24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Delfin SC18 October 2026
- W1-0Tecnico Universitario10 October 2026
- W2-1Orense SC21 September 2026
- D0-0Aucas12 September 2026
What these results say
- Tecnico Universitario failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 33 | 10 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 33 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 34 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC
- 10 October 2026Manta FC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 26 July 2026Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 5 April 2026Manta FC 0–2 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 29 November 2025Tecnico Universitario 2–3 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 19 October 2025Manta FC 2–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 3 August 2025Tecnico Universitario 3–1 Manta FCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Tecnico Universitario and Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Manta FC
GoalsAssists
- José Enrique Angulo Caicedo70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tecnico Universitario carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.2 for Manta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Tecnico Universitario and 1.08 for Manta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tecnico Universitario rate 0.52 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Manta FC rate 0.50 and 1.85.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tecnico Universitario the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario against 1.08 for Manta FC. Tecnico Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.85 for Manta FC.
How the model reaches 45% for Tecnico Universitario to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tecnico Universitario to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Tecnico Universitario's ratings take away 28 points and Manta FC's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Tecnico Universitario's ratings16%−28
- Manta FC's ratings45%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tecnico Universitario at home · Manta FC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Tecnico Universitario 33, Manta FC 34.
Tecnico Universitario score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Manta FC have let in 7 there.
Manta FC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Tecnico Universitario have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tecnico Universitario
- vs Deportivo Cuenca22 Nov · Liga Prowin 35%
- at Mushuc Runa SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 21%
- vs Orense SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 35%
Manta FC
- vs Delfin SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Deportivo Cuenca29 Nov · Liga Prowin 21%
- vs Mushuc Runa SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- at Orense SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.