Al-Jazira
vs
Al-Wasl FC
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al-Jazira 2–1 Al-Wasl FC
The model makes it 39% Al-Jazira, 26% draw, 35% Al-Wasl FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Jazira 1.57, Al-Wasl FC 1.46.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Al-Jazira's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Al-Wasl FC's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Jazira are top on 14 points from 6 games; Al-Wasl FC are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Al-Jazira are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al-Ittihad Kalba.
- Al-Wasl FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Baniyas SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Wasl FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 May 2026, ended Al-Jazira 1–2 Al-Wasl FC.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Jazira at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC
Al-Jazira
Pro League
- D2-2away to Al-Ittihad Kalba18 October 2026
- D1-1Al Nasr10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai5 September 2026
- W3-0Ajman29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Sharjah FC23 August 2026
Al-Wasl FC
Pro League
- W2-0away to Baniyas SC16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al Ain10 September 2026
- W5-2Khorfakkan4 September 2026
- L0-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai28 August 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ittihad Kalba21 August 2026
What these results say
- Al-Jazira went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Jazira scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Wasl FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 14 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC
- 11 May 2026Al-Jazira 1–2 Al-Wasl FCPro League
- 17 January 2026Al-Wasl FC 1–0 Al-JaziraPro League
- 30 November 2025Al-Wasl FC 1–2 Al-JaziraLeague Cup
- 16 November 2025Al-Jazira 0–0 Al-Wasl FCLeague Cup
- 7 April 2025Al-Jazira 0–5 Al-Wasl FCPro League
- 22 March 2025Al-Jazira 3–1 Al-Wasl FCLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC
Al-Jazira
GoalsAssists
- Bruno21
- Malcom21
Al-Wasl FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Giménez31
- Renato Júnior30
- Serginho23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al-Jazira carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.62 for Al-Wasl FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Al-Jazira and 1.46 for Al-Wasl FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Jazira rate 0.76 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Wasl FC rate 0.78 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Jazira a 23.2% chance of the title and Al-Wasl FC 16.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Jazira the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Jazira against 1.46 for Al-Wasl FC. Al-Jazira's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.23 for Al-Wasl FC.
How the model reaches 39% for Al-Jazira to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al-Jazira to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al-Jazira's ratings take away 13 points and Al-Wasl FC's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Al-Jazira's ratings27%−13
- Al-Wasl FC's ratings39%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Jazira at home · Al-Wasl FC away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al-Jazira 6, Al-Wasl FC 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al-Jazira
- at Khorfakkan21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 56%
- vs Al Ain3 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 34%
- at Dubai United13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 58%
- vs Al-Dhafra25 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 61%
Al-Wasl FC
- vs Hatta SC19 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 68%
- at Tractor Sazi23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.