Relegation Group - 6 · 8 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC Liga Pro prediction

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato

Our model says: Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SC

The model makes it 50% Mushuc Runa SC, 26% draw, 24% Delfin SC — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Mushuc Runa SC 1.74, Delfin SC 1.02.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Mushuc Runa SC's rating is built from 69 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Delfin SC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 40 points from 33 games; Delfin SC are 14th on 35 points from 34 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
  • Mushuc Runa SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Orense SC.
  • Delfin SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Orense SC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Delfin SC 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 October 2026, ended Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SC.

More Ecuador LigaPro predictions

All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

53%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Mushuc Runa SC win Draw Delfin SC win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Mushuc Runa SC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mushuc Runa SC at 50% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

Mushuc Runa SC

Liga Pro

  • D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Deportivo Cuenca20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Guayaquil City FC12 September 2026
  • D1-1Leones del Norte8 September 2026

Delfin SC

Liga Pro

  • L0-4away to Orense SC24 October 2026
  • W4-2Manta FC18 October 2026
  • W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Tecnico Universitario20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Barcelona SC13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Delfin SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Delfin SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Delfin SC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mushuc Runa SC33913113943-440
14Delfin SC3498172740-1335

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

  • 9 October 2026Delfin SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 28 August 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 3 May 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 15 June 2025Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 18 February 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2024Delfin SC 4–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC

Mushuc Runa SC

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Delfin SC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ayunta111

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Mushuc Runa SC carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.28 for Delfin SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Mushuc Runa SC and 1.02 for Delfin SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Mushuc Runa SC rate 0.65 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Delfin SC rate 0.53 and 1.65.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Mushuc Runa SC the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC against 1.02 for Delfin SC. Mushuc Runa SC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.65 for Delfin SC.

How the model reaches 50% for Mushuc Runa SC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mushuc Runa SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Mushuc Runa SC's ratings take away 22 points and Delfin SC's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Mushuc Runa SC's ratings22%−22
  4. Delfin SC's ratings50%+28

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SC
33Matches33
9W 13D 11LRecord9W 8D 16L
39 1.2 per gameGoals scored27 0.8 per game
43 1.3 per gameGoals conceded36 1.1 per game
11 of 33Clean sheets8 of 33
8 of 33Failed to score14 of 33
5 of 6Penalties scored6 of 6
76 2.3 per gameYellow cards88 2.7 per game
8Red cards6
4-4-2 28×Usual shape4-4-2 10×

Mushuc Runa SC at home · Delfin SC away

16Played16
6W 7D 3LRecord1W 5D 10L
17–15Goals for – against10–22
8 of 16Clean sheets2 of 16

League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Pro matches this season: Mushuc Runa SC 33, Delfin SC 33.

Mushuc Runa SC scored 755946
Delfin SC conceded 236884

Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Delfin SC have let in 8 there.

Delfin SC scored 445248
Mushuc Runa SC conceded 4858313

Delfin SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 13 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Mushuc Runa SC

  • at Orense SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
  • vs Tecnico Universitario29 Nov · Liga Prowin 54%
  • at Manta FC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 39%

Delfin SC

  • at Manta FC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
  • vs Orense SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 38%
  • at Deportivo Cuenca6 Dec · Liga Prowin 24%
  • vs Tecnico Universitario13 Dec · Liga Prowin 46%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.