Al Nasr
vs
Dubai United
Pro League prediction
Our model says: Al Nasr 2–1 Dubai United
The model makes it 52% Al Nasr, 22% draw, 26% Dubai United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Nasr 2.40, Dubai United 1.56.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Al Nasr: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Al Nasr's rating is built from 32 UAE Pro League matches and Dubai United's from 6, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 406 matches.
Key facts
- Al Nasr are 8th on 8 points from 6 games; Dubai United are 9th on 7 points from 6 games — Pro League.
- Al Nasr have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hatta SC.
- Dubai United are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Al-Dhafra.
More UAE Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Nasr vs Dubai United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Nasr at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Nasr vs Dubai United
Al Nasr
Pro League
- W2-0Hatta SC17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Jazira10 September 2026
- L1-2Ajman6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Al Ain29 August 2026
- W1-0Al Wahda FC21 August 2026
Dubai United
Pro League
- L1-5away to Al-Dhafra16 October 2026
- D1-1Shabab Al Ahli Dubai10 September 2026
- L3-4away to Sharjah FC5 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Ittihad Kalba28 August 2026
- W3-2away to Baniyas SC23 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Nasr scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dubai United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dubai United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dubai United.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Nasr vs Dubai United
- 20 September 2026Al Nasr 3–1 Dubai UnitedLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Al Nasr and Dubai United
Al Nasr
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Dubai United
GoalsAssists
- Willy Semedo41
- Adeel Al Chadli22
- S. Babicka21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Nasr carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.31 for Dubai United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.40 goals for Al Nasr and 1.56 for Dubai United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Nasr rate 0.59 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dubai United rate 0.75 and 2.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Nasr a 0.1% chance of the title and Dubai United 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Nasr the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al Nasr against 1.56 for Dubai United. Al Nasr's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/2.42 for Dubai United.
How the model reaches 52% for Al Nasr to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Al Nasr to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Al Nasr's ratings take away 21 points and Dubai United's ratings add 33 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage40%+3
- Al Nasr's ratings19%−21
- Dubai United's ratings52%+33
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Nasr at home · Dubai United away
League matches only, Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Pro League matches this season: Al Nasr 6, Dubai United 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Nasr
- at Baniyas SC21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 45%
- vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 24%
- at Al-Dhafra13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 44%
- vs Khorfakkan24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 50%
Dubai United
- vs Al Wahda FC21 Nov · Pro Leaguewin 31%
- at Ajman4 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Al-Jazira13 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 22%
- at Hatta SC24 Dec · Pro Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.