Siroki Brijeg
vs
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Siroki Brijeg 1–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
The model makes it 41% Siroki Brijeg, 28% draw, 31% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Siroki Brijeg 1.47, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Siroki Brijeg's rating is built from 46 Bosnian Premier League matches and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Siroki Brijeg are 4th on 13 points from 10 games; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 5th on 13 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- Siroki Brijeg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Sloga Doboj.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to BSK Banja Luka.
- Last 6 meetings: Siroki Brijeg 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Siroki Brijeg.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Siroki Brijeg at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
- L2-3Borac Banja Luka20 September 2026
- D1-1BSK Banja Luka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zrinjski6 September 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
- D1-1Čelik18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sloga Doboj13 September 2026
- W2-0FK Sarajevo9 September 2026
What these results say
- Siroki Brijeg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Siroki Brijeg vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 29 August 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 21 May 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–2 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 22 March 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 4 December 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3–3 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 21 September 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 18 May 2025Siroki Brijeg 3–2 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Siroki Brijeg carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.16 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.21 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Siroki Brijeg rate 0.47 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo rate 0.48 and 1.92.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Siroki Brijeg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Siroki Brijeg against 1.21 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Siroki Brijeg's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.92 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
How the model reaches 41% for Siroki Brijeg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Siroki Brijeg to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Siroki Brijeg's ratings take away 32 points and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Siroki Brijeg's ratings12%−32
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's ratings41%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Siroki Brijeg at home · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Siroki Brijeg 10, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 10.
Siroki Brijeg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have let in 5 there.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Siroki Brijeg
- at FK Sarajevo21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 19%
- vs Zrinjski28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 22%
- at BSK Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 31%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- vs Borac Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 23%
- at Velež28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Sloga Doboj2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.