Leeds
vs
Tottenham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Leeds 1–0 Tottenham
The model makes it 48% Leeds, 28% draw, 24% Tottenham — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leeds 1.56, Tottenham 0.93.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Leeds: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Leeds's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Tottenham's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Leeds are 7th on 10 points from 7 games; Tottenham are 16th on 6 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Leeds are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United.
- Tottenham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Coventry.
- Last 6 meetings: Tottenham 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 May 2026, ended Tottenham 1–1 Leeds.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leeds vs Tottenham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leeds vs Tottenham
Leeds
Premier League
- D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
Tottenham
Premier League
- W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
- L2-3Aston Villa19 September 2026
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
What these results say
- Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leeds conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tottenham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Tottenham
- 11 May 2026Tottenham 1–1 LeedsPremier League
- 4 October 2025Leeds 1–2 TottenhamPremier League
- 28 May 2023Leeds 1–4 TottenhamPremier League
- 12 November 2022Tottenham 4–3 LeedsPremier League
- 26 February 2022Leeds 0–4 TottenhamPremier League
- 21 November 2021Tottenham 2–1 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Leeds and Tottenham
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Tottenham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Leeds carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.77 for Tottenham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Leeds and 0.93 for Tottenham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leeds rate 0.98 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Tottenham rate 0.84 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leeds a 0.1% chance of the title and Tottenham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Leeds against 0.93 for Tottenham. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.99 for Tottenham.
How the model reaches 48% for Leeds to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Leeds to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Leeds's ratings add 4 points and Tottenham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Leeds's ratings45%+4
- Tottenham's ratings48%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leeds at home · Tottenham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Leeds 7, Tottenham 7.
Leeds score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Tottenham have let in 2 there.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Leeds have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leeds
- at Chelsea21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Coventry28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
- at Manchester City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Tottenham
- vs Ipswich21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Sunderland29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- vs Fulham2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.