Borac Banja Luka
vs
Radnik Bijeljina
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Borac Banja Luka 2–0 Radnik Bijeljina
The model makes it 75% Borac Banja Luka, 16% draw, 9% Radnik Bijeljina — fair odds of 1.33, 6.25 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Borac Banja Luka 2.96, Radnik Bijeljina 0.74.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
One-sided: Borac Banja Luka are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Borac Banja Luka's rating is built from 45 Bosnian Premier League matches and Radnik Bijeljina's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Borac Banja Luka are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games; Radnik Bijeljina are 9th on 8 points from 11 games — Premijer Liga.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to BSK Banja Luka.
- Radnik Bijeljina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Zrinjski.
- Last 6 meetings: Borac Banja Luka 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Borac Banja Luka 4–3 Radnik Bijeljina.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borac Banja Luka vs Radnik Bijeljina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borac Banja Luka at 75% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Borac Banja Luka vs Radnik Bijeljina
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sloga Doboj16 September 2026
- W1-0Zrinjski12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FK Sarajevo6 September 2026
Radnik Bijeljina
Premijer Liga
- L0-1away to Zrinjski23 October 2026
- D1-1FK Sarajevo17 October 2026
- W3-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D4-4away to BSK Banja Luka19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Čelik11 September 2026
What these results say
- Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 22 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borac Banja Luka vs Radnik Bijeljina
- 26 September 2026Borac Banja Luka 4–3 Radnik BijeljinaFriendlies Clubs
- 30 August 2026Radnik Bijeljina 2–2 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 22 May 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 21 March 2026Borac Banja Luka 1–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 3 December 2025Radnik Bijeljina 0–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 20 September 2025Borac Banja Luka 5–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
A clear gap in the ratings
Borac Banja Luka carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.05 for Radnik Bijeljina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.96 goals for Borac Banja Luka and 0.74 for Radnik Bijeljina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borac Banja Luka rate 0.74 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Bijeljina rate 0.49 and 2.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Borac Banja Luka a 42.1% chance of the title and Radnik Bijeljina 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 75%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.96 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka against 0.74 for Radnik Bijeljina. Borac Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.46 for Radnik Bijeljina.
How the model reaches 75% for Borac Banja Luka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Borac Banja Luka to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Borac Banja Luka's ratings take away 14 points and Radnik Bijeljina's ratings add 45 points, which lands on the published 75%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Borac Banja Luka's ratings30%−14
- Radnik Bijeljina's ratings75%+45
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borac Banja Luka at home · Radnik Bijeljina away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Borac Banja Luka 9, Radnik Bijeljina 11.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Radnik Bijeljina have let in 3 there.
Radnik Bijeljina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borac Banja Luka
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 50%
Radnik Bijeljina
- vs Velež21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- at Sloga Doboj28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
- vs Čelik2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 44%
- vs BSK Banja Luka5 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.