Regular Season - 9 · 8 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

JS Saoura vs CS Constantine Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: JS Saoura 1–0 CS Constantine

The model makes it 48% JS Saoura, 27% draw, 25% CS Constantine — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: JS Saoura 1.62, CS Constantine 1.02.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,265 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. JS Saoura's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and CS Constantine's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • JS Saoura are 15th on 3 points from 6 games; CS Constantine are 11th on 7 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • JS Saoura have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Ben Aknoun.
  • CS Constantine are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Olympique Akbou.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 June 2026, ended JS Saoura 3–1 CS Constantine.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: JS Saoura vs CS Constantine

52%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

JS Saoura win Draw CS Constantine win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read JS Saoura first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 37%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts JS Saoura at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into JS Saoura vs CS Constantine

JS Saoura

Ligue 1

  • D0-0Ben Aknoun24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MB Rouisset18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
  • D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
  • D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026

CS Constantine

Ligue 1

  • L0-3away to Olympique Akbou23 October 2026
  • L2-4JS El Biar17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Khenchela12 October 2026
  • W4-0US Biskra7 October 2026
  • L1-5away to ES Setif19 September 2026

What these results say

  • JS Saoura did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
  • CS Constantine failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CS Constantine conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for CS Constantine had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15JS Saoura603306-63
11CS Constantine72141115-47

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: JS Saoura vs CS Constantine

  • 5 June 2026JS Saoura 3–1 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 9 January 2026CS Constantine 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 20 June 2025CS Constantine 2–2 JS SaouraLigue 1
  • 27 December 2024JS Saoura 2–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 2 March 2024JS Saoura 2–2 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 6 October 2023CS Constantine 3–0 JS SaouraLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

JS Saoura carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.2 for CS Constantine. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for JS Saoura and 1.02 for CS Constantine. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

JS Saoura rate 0.42 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CS Constantine rate 0.62 and 2.37.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CS Constantine, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS Saoura a 0.1% chance of the title and CS Constantine 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

How the call on JS Saoura v CS Constantine has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is JS Saoura's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. JS Saoura win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw27%=
  3. CS Constantine win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives JS Saoura the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for JS Saoura against 1.02 for CS Constantine. JS Saoura's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.37 for CS Constantine.

How the model reaches 48% for JS Saoura to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Saoura to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, JS Saoura's ratings take away 27 points and CS Constantine's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 48%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. JS Saoura's ratings17%−27
  4. CS Constantine's ratings48%+31

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

JS SaouraCS Constantine
6Matches7
0W 3D 3LRecord2W 1D 4L
0 0.0 per gameGoals scored11 1.6 per game
6 1.0 per gameGoals conceded15 2.1 per game
3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7
6 of 6Failed to score2 of 7
–Penalties scored–
14 2.3 per gameYellow cards11 1.6 per game
2Red cards1

JS Saoura at home · CS Constantine away

2Played4
0W 2D 0LRecord0W 1D 3L
0–0Goals for – against2–11
2 of 2Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Saoura 6, CS Constantine 7.

JS Saoura scored 000000
CS Constantine conceded 314413
CS Constantine scored 103321
JS Saoura conceded 101103

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

JS Saoura

  • vs Khenchela13 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
  • at MC Alger21 Nov · Ligue 1win 19%

CS Constantine

  • at MB Rouisset21 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
  • vs MC Oran28 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.