Jagiellonia
vs
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Jagiellonia 2–1 GKS Katowice
The model makes it 38% Jagiellonia, 26% draw, 36% GKS Katowice — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.59, GKS Katowice 1.53.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Jagiellonia's rating is built from 44 Ekstraklasa matches and GKS Katowice's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Jagiellonia are 13th on 12 points from 10 games; GKS Katowice are 6th on 18 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Zaglebie Lubin.
- GKS Katowice have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Pogon Szczecin.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended GKS Katowice 2–2 Jagiellonia.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jagiellonia at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
- L1-3Legia Warszawa20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Wisla Krakow11 September 2026
- W2-1Slask Wroclaw6 September 2026
GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa
- L0-1Pogon Szczecin17 October 2026
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków12 October 2026
- W4-1away to Raków Częstochowa9 October 2026
- W3-2Cracovia Krakow19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zaglebie Lubin12 September 2026
What these results say
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- GKS Katowice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GKS Katowice had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
- 17 May 2026GKS Katowice 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 17 March 2026Jagiellonia 2–1 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 4 December 2025GKS Katowice 3–1 JagielloniaCup
- 2 March 2025Jagiellonia 1–0 GKS KatowiceEkstraklasa
- 25 August 2024GKS Katowice 3–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
GKS Katowice
GoalsAssists
- I. Shkurin81
- B. Nowak48
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jagiellonia carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.75 for GKS Katowice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.53 for GKS Katowice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jagiellonia rate 0.81 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GKS Katowice rate 0.96 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour GKS Katowice, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jagiellonia a 0.1% chance of the title and GKS Katowice 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jagiellonia against 1.53 for GKS Katowice. Jagiellonia's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.18 for GKS Katowice.
How the model reaches 38% for Jagiellonia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Jagiellonia to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Jagiellonia's ratings take away 12 points and GKS Katowice's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Jagiellonia's ratings32%−12
- GKS Katowice's ratings38%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jagiellonia at home · GKS Katowice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
JagielloniaGKS Katowice
Jagiellonia are 13th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 12th so far); GKS Katowice are 6th after 11 (between 2nd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Jagiellonia 10, GKS Katowice 11.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); GKS Katowice have let in 4 there.
GKS Katowice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Jagiellonia
- at Cracovia Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Sunderland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
GKS Katowice
- vs Lech Poznan21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- at Slask Wroclaw28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- vs Legia Warszawa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.