Gornik Zabrze
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Gornik Zabrze 2–0 Wieczysta Kraków
The model makes it 58% Gornik Zabrze, 23% draw, 19% Wieczysta Kraków — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 2.10, Wieczysta Kraków 0.97.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Gornik Zabrze: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Gornik Zabrze's rating is built from 46 Ekstraklasa matches and Wieczysta Kraków's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 711 matches.
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are top on 27 points from 12 games; Wieczysta Kraków are 15th on 8 points from 11 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Widzew Łódź.
- Wieczysta Kraków have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Raków Częstochowa.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 58% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa
- D1-1away to Widzew Łódź23 October 2026
- D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026
- W3-0Wisla Plock9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Widzew Łódź18 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin13 September 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze had two goals or fewer.
- Wieczysta Kraków failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 27 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski41
- Peter40
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lisandro Semedo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.57 for Wieczysta Kraków. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.97 for Wieczysta Kraków. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gornik Zabrze rate 0.86 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.83 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gornik Zabrze a 13.6% chance of the title and Wieczysta Kraków 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 0.97 for Wieczysta Kraków. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.47 for Wieczysta Kraków.
How the model reaches 58% for Gornik Zabrze to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gornik Zabrze to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Gornik Zabrze's ratings take away 3 points and Wieczysta Kraków's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Gornik Zabrze's ratings41%−3
- Wieczysta Kraków's ratings58%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gornik Zabrze at home · Wieczysta Kraków away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Gornik ZabrzeWieczysta Kraków
Gornik Zabrze are 1st after 12 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Wieczysta Kraków are 15th after 11 (between 12th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Gornik Zabrze 12, Wieczysta Kraków 11.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 10 there.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gornik Zabrze
- at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- vs Wisla Plock28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Pogon Szczecin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at Slask Wroclaw12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 47%
Wieczysta Kraków
- vs Motor Lublin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- at Legia Warszawa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 18%
- vs Korona Kielce5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.