BSC Young Boys
vs
FC St. Gallen
Super League prediction
Our model says: BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC St. Gallen
The model makes it 56% BSC Young Boys, 21% draw, 23% FC St. Gallen — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 2.58, FC St. Gallen 1.51.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to BSC Young Boys: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- BSC Young Boys are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; FC St. Gallen are 4th on 16 points from 10 games — Super League.
- BSC Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Grasshoppers.
- FC St. Gallen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lausanne.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC St. Gallen.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: BSC Young Boys vs FC St. Gallen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC St. Gallen
BSC Young Boys
- W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
- W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Lugano12 September 2026
- D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
FC St. Gallen
- W1-0Lausanne11 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 189320 September 2026
- L1-4away to FC Lugano16 September 2026
- L0-3FC Sion12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Servette FC6 September 2026
What these results say
- BSC Young Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 22 |
| 4 | FC St. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
BSC Young Boys
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 9% today
FC St. Gallen
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC St. Gallen
- 26 April 2026BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 11 February 2026FC St. Gallen 2–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 9 November 2025FC St. Gallen 1–4 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 19 October 2025BSC Young Boys 1–2 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 29 March 2025BSC Young Boys 1–0 FC St. GallenSuper League
- 1 December 2024BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC St. GallenSuper League
Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC St. Gallen
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende113
- C. Fassnacht51
- A. Sanches34
FC St. Gallen
GoalsAssists
- A. Balde31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
BSC Young Boys carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.52 for FC St. Gallen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.51 for FC St. Gallen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSC Young Boys rate 1.04 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Gallen rate 0.68 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSC Young Boys a 9.3% chance of the title and FC St. Gallen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.51 for FC St. Gallen. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.33 for FC St. Gallen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
BSC Young Boys at home · FC St. Gallen away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BSC Young BoysFC St. Gallen
BSC Young Boys are 2nd after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); FC St. Gallen are 4th after 10 (between 2nd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: BSC Young Boys 10, FC St. Gallen 10.
FC St. Gallen score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); BSC Young Boys have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
BSC Young Boys
- vs FC Zurich1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 68%
- at FC Luzern7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 47%
- vs FC Thun21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 64%
- at FC Sion29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC Vaduz5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 43%
FC St. Gallen
- vs Servette FC31 Oct · Super Leaguewin 40%
- vs FC Lugano8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 23%
- at FC Zurich22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 41%
- at FC Thun29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 37%
- vs Grasshoppers6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.