FC Zurich
vs
FC Luzern
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern
The model makes it 38% FC Zurich, 24% draw, 38% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Zurich 1.80, FC Luzern 1.82.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Zurich and FC Luzern are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Zurich are 5th on 14 points from 10 games; FC Luzern are 8th on 12 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Thun.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Lugano.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Luzern 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended FC Luzern 1–0 FC Zurich.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Zurich vs FC Luzern
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Zurich at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Zurich vs FC Luzern
FC Zurich
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
- L2-4BSC Young Boys1 September 2026
FC Luzern
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Zurich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Zurich.
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Luzern had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Zurich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
FC Luzern
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Zurich vs FC Luzern
- 12 May 2026FC Luzern 1–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 14 February 2026FC Zurich 1–4 FC LuzernSuper League
- 8 November 2025FC Zurich 3–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 3 August 2025FC Luzern 1–1 FC ZurichSuper League
- 15 March 2025FC Zurich 3–2 FC LuzernSuper League
- 26 January 2025FC Luzern 3–1 FC ZurichSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Zurich and FC Luzern
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel43
- P. Keny41
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Zurich carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.46 for FC Luzern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for FC Zurich and 1.82 for FC Luzern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Zurich rate 0.60 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Luzern rate 0.73 and 1.61.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Zurich the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for FC Zurich against 1.82 for FC Luzern. FC Zurich's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.61 for FC Luzern.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Zurich at home · FC Luzern away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC ZurichFC Luzern
FC Zurich are 4th after 10 Super League matches (between 4th and 10th so far); FC Luzern are 8th after 10 (between 4th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Zurich 10, FC Luzern 10.
FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FC Luzern have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Zurich
- at BSC Young Boys1 Nov · Super Leaguewin 15%
- at Servette FC8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC St. Gallen22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 33%
- at FC Vaduz28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 23%
- vs FC Lugano5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 17%
FC Luzern
- vs FC Sion31 Oct · Super Leaguewin 33%
- vs BSC Young Boys7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Basel 189322 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Lugano29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 21%
- at FC Thun5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.