FC Lugano
vs
FC Basel 1893
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Lugano 2–0 FC Basel 1893
The model makes it 70% FC Lugano, 19% draw, 11% FC Basel 1893 — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.52, FC Basel 1893 0.75.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Lugano are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Lugano are top on 28 points from 10 games; FC Basel 1893 are 7th on 13 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Lugano are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to FC Luzern.
- FC Basel 1893 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to FC Vaduz.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Lugano 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC Lugano.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Lugano at 70% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
FC Lugano
- W4-0FC Luzern10 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lausanne20 September 2026
- W4-1FC St. Gallen16 September 2026
- D2-2BSC Young Boys12 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Basel 18936 September 2026
FC Basel 1893
- L0-3away to FC Vaduz11 October 2026
- L1-3FC St. Gallen20 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Luzern13 September 2026
- L1-3FC Lugano6 September 2026
- L1-2FC Sion3 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Lugano went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Lugano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Lugano had three goals or more.
- FC Basel 1893 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Basel 1893 had three goals or more.
- FC Basel 1893 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893
- 6 September 2026FC Basel 1893 1–3 FC LuganoSuper League
- 17 May 2026FC Lugano 4–0 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 15 February 2026FC Basel 1893 1–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 9 November 2025FC Basel 1893 0–1 FC LuganoSuper League
- 10 August 2025FC Lugano 3–1 FC Basel 1893Super League
- 10 May 2025FC Lugano 2–5 FC Basel 1893Super League
Leading scorers: FC Lugano and FC Basel 1893
FC Lugano
GoalsAssists
- D. Moncada41
- Daniel Dos Santos40
- E. Pihlström31
FC Basel 1893
GoalsAssists
- Ž. Celar61
- A. Sow34
- X. Shaqiri31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
FC Lugano carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.39 for FC Basel 1893. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.52 goals for FC Lugano and 0.75 for FC Basel 1893. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Lugano rate 0.89 in attack and 0.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Basel 1893 rate 0.61 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Lugano a 89.2% chance of the title and FC Basel 1893 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Lugano the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.52 expected goals for FC Lugano against 0.75 for FC Basel 1893. FC Lugano's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.52 for FC Basel 1893.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Lugano at home · FC Basel 1893 away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC LuganoFC Basel 1893
FC Lugano are 1st after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); FC Basel 1893 are 7th after 10 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Lugano 10, FC Basel 1893 10.
FC Lugano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Basel 1893 have let in 7 there.
FC Basel 1893 score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); FC Lugano have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Lugano
- vs Kauno Žalgiris5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 74%
- at FC St. Gallen8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 51%
- vs Grasshoppers21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 78%
FC Basel 1893
- at FC Thun8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 30%
- vs FC Luzern22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- at Grasshoppers28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
- vs Servette FC6 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.