JS El Biar
vs
MC Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: JS El Biar 1–2 MC Alger
The model makes it 36% JS El Biar, 26% draw, 38% MC Alger — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: JS El Biar 1.50, MC Alger 1.55.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,027 settled matches.
A tight game: JS El Biar and MC Alger are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. JS El Biar's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and MC Alger's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- JS El Biar are 7th on 8 points from 7 games; MC Alger are 9th on 7 points from 3 games — Ligue 1.
- JS El Biar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to MC Oran.
- MC Alger are unbeaten in their last 3 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to ASO Chlef.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: JS El Biar vs MC Alger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MC Alger at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into JS El Biar vs MC Alger
JS El Biar
Ligue 1
- D0-0MC Oran23 October 2026
- W4-2away to CS Constantine17 October 2026
- L2-3CR Belouizdad12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ben Aknoun7 October 2026
- W4-0JS Saoura18 September 2026
MC Alger
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
- W1-0Témouchent9 October 2026
- W2-0MB Rouisset18 September 2026
What these results say
- JS El Biar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for JS El Biar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
JS El Biar carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.5 for MC Alger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for JS El Biar and 1.55 for MC Alger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
JS El Biar rate 0.73 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MC Alger rate 0.62 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour JS El Biar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS El Biar a 1.1% chance of the title and MC Alger 19.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on JS El Biar v MC Alger has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is JS El Biar's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- JS El Biar win36%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −1
- MC Alger win38%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for JS El Biar against 1.55 for MC Alger. JS El Biar's attack/defence rating is 0.73/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.26 for MC Alger.
How the model reaches 38% for MC Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Alger to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, JS El Biar's ratings add 31 points and MC Alger's ratings take away 22 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- JS El Biar's ratings60%+31
- MC Alger's ratings38%−22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
JS El Biar at home · MC Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS El Biar 7, MC Alger 3.
JS El Biar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); MC Alger have let in 0 there.
MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); JS El Biar have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
JS El Biar
- at ES Setif21 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs US Biskra28 Nov · Ligue 1win 68%
MC Alger
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.