Regular Season - 8 · 30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

MC Oran vs Olympique Akbou Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: MC Oran 1–0 Olympique Akbou

The model makes it 44% MC Oran, 31% draw, 25% Olympique Akbou — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: MC Oran 1.30, Olympique Akbou 0.85.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,265 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. MC Oran's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Olympique Akbou's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • MC Oran are top on 14 points from 6 games; Olympique Akbou are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
  • MC Oran are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to JS El Biar.
  • Olympique Akbou are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
  • Last 5 meetings: Olympique Akbou 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended MC Oran 0–1 Olympique Akbou.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: MC Oran vs Olympique Akbou

42%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

MC Oran win Draw Olympique Akbou win
  1. 1–015%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–19%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read MC Oran first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 26%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts MC Oran at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into MC Oran vs Olympique Akbou

MC Oran

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to JS El Biar23 October 2026
  • W1-0Khenchela17 October 2026
  • W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
  • D0-0ES Setif8 October 2026
  • W1-0away to ASO Chlef18 September 2026

Olympique Akbou

Ligue 1

  • W3-0CS Constantine23 October 2026
  • W2-1Ben Aknoun16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to JS Saoura8 October 2026
  • L2-3USM Alger19 September 2026
  • L0-2away to MB Rouisset12 September 2026

What these results say

  • MC Oran went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • MC Oran kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1MC Oran642050+514
6Olympique Akbou631296+310

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

MC Oran

Chance to finish in the top two · 25% today

Win 29%
Draw 22%
Defeat 18%

Olympique Akbou

Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today

Win 14%
Draw 8%
Defeat 6%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: MC Oran vs Olympique Akbou

  • 3 February 2026MC Oran 0–1 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
  • 29 August 2025Olympique Akbou 1–0 MC OranLigue 1
  • 25 April 2025MC Oran 1–0 Olympique AkbouLigue 1
  • 15 November 2024Olympique Akbou 3–1 MC OranLigue 1
  • 25 November 2022MC Oran 1–1 Olympique AkbouCoupe Nationale

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

MC Oran carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.34 for Olympique Akbou. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for MC Oran and 0.85 for Olympique Akbou. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

MC Oran rate 0.50 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympique Akbou rate 0.58 and 1.60.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Oran a 11.1% chance of the title and Olympique Akbou 3.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

How the call on MC Oran v Olympique Akbou has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 6 updates it reads 44% / 31% / 25%: the biggest move is the draw, up 3 points.

  1. MC Oran win44%▼ −1
  2. Draw31%▲ +3
  3. Olympique Akbou win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives MC Oran the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for MC Oran against 0.85 for Olympique Akbou. MC Oran's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.6 for Olympique Akbou.

How the model reaches 44% for MC Oran to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Oran to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, MC Oran's ratings take away 22 points and Olympique Akbou's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. MC Oran's ratings22%−22
  4. Olympique Akbou's ratings44%+22

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

MC OranOlympique Akbou
6Matches6
4W 2D 0LRecord3W 1D 2L
5 0.8 per gameGoals scored9 1.5 per game
0 0.0 per gameGoals conceded6 1.0 per game
6 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6
2 of 6Failed to score2 of 6
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
9 1.5 per gameYellow cards18 3.0 per game
1Red cards0

MC Oran at home · Olympique Akbou away

3Played3
2W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 1L
3–0Goals for – against2–2
3 of 3Clean sheets2 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Oran 6, Olympique Akbou 6.

MC Oran scored 000023
Olympique Akbou conceded 110102

MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Olympique Akbou have let in 2 there.

Olympique Akbou scored 101701
MC Oran conceded 000000

Olympique Akbou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); MC Oran have let in 0 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

MC Oran

Olympique Akbou

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.