CS Constantine
vs
USM Alger
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: CS Constantine 2–1 USM Alger
The model makes it 38% CS Constantine, 26% draw, 36% USM Alger — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CS Constantine 1.60, USM Alger 1.56.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: CS Constantine and USM Alger are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. CS Constantine's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and USM Alger's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- CS Constantine are 9th on 7 points from 6 games; USM Alger are 5th on 10 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- CS Constantine have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to JS El Biar.
- USM Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to JS Saoura.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended USM Alger 0–0 CS Constantine.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CS Constantine vs USM Alger
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CS Constantine at 38% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CS Constantine vs USM Alger
CS Constantine
- L2-4JS El Biar17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Khenchela12 October 2026
- W4-0US Biskra7 October 2026
- L1-5away to ES Setif19 September 2026
- W3-0ASO Chlef12 September 2026
USM Alger
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
- W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026
What these results say
- CS Constantine scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CS Constantine had three goals or more.
- 4 of these 5 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CS Constantine | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | USM Alger | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CS Constantine vs USM Alger
- 8 March 2026USM Alger 0–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
- 4 October 2025CS Constantine 1–1 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 11 May 2025USM Alger 2–1 CS ConstantineLigue 1
- 9 April 2025USM Alger 1–1 CS ConstantineCAF Confederation Cup
- 2 April 2025CS Constantine 1–1 USM AlgerCAF Confederation Cup
- 21 November 2024CS Constantine 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
CS Constantine carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.37 for USM Alger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for CS Constantine and 1.56 for USM Alger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CS Constantine rate 0.65 in attack and 2.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; USM Alger rate 0.57 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour USM Alger, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CS Constantine the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.60 expected goals for CS Constantine against 1.56 for USM Alger. CS Constantine's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.51 for USM Alger.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CS Constantine at home · USM Alger away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: CS Constantine 6, USM Alger 5.
USM Alger score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); CS Constantine have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
CS Constantine
- at CR Belouizdad7 Nov · Ligue 1win 16%
- at JS Saoura8 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- at MB Rouisset21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
USM Alger
- vs MC Alger7 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.