US Biskra
vs
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: US Biskra 0–1 ASO Chlef
The model makes it 34% US Biskra, 29% draw, 37% ASO Chlef — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: US Biskra 1.27, ASO Chlef 1.34.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,027 settled matches.
A tight game: US Biskra and ASO Chlef are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. US Biskra's rating is built from 6 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ASO Chlef's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- US Biskra are bottom on 2 points from 6 games; ASO Chlef are 14th on 4 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- US Biskra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to JS Kabylie.
- ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MB Rouisset.
- Last 6 meetings: ASO Chlef 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2025, ended ASO Chlef 1–1 US Biskra.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: US Biskra vs ASO Chlef
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ASO Chlef at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into US Biskra vs ASO Chlef
US Biskra
Ligue 1
- L1-4away to JS Kabylie18 October 2026
- L0-1MC Oran13 October 2026
- L0-4away to CS Constantine7 October 2026
- D0-0JS Saoura22 September 2026
- L0-1CR Belouizdad17 September 2026
ASO Chlef
Ligue 1
- D1-1MB Rouisset24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
- D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie9 October 2026
- L0-1MC Oran18 September 2026
What these results say
- US Biskra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
- ASO Chlef conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for ASO Chlef had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | US Biskra | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 2 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: US Biskra vs ASO Chlef
- 25 April 2025ASO Chlef 1–1 US BiskraLigue 1
- 16 November 2024US Biskra 1–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 14 June 2024ASO Chlef 2–1 US BiskraLigue 1
- 8 March 2024ASO Chlef 2–2 US BiskraCoupe Nationale
- 27 January 2024US Biskra 2–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
- 18 May 2023ASO Chlef 2–1 US BiskraLigue 1
The two sides
US Biskra carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.15 for ASO Chlef. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for US Biskra and 1.34 for ASO Chlef. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
US Biskra rate 0.41 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ASO Chlef rate 0.47 and 1.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on US Biskra v ASO Chlef has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is US Biskra's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- US Biskra win34%▼ −6
- Draw29%=
- ASO Chlef win37%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ASO Chlef the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for US Biskra against 1.34 for ASO Chlef. US Biskra's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.9 for ASO Chlef.
How the model reaches 37% for ASO Chlef to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ASO Chlef to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, US Biskra's ratings add 47 points and ASO Chlef's ratings take away 39 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- US Biskra's ratings76%+47
- ASO Chlef's ratings37%−39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
US Biskra at home · ASO Chlef away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: US Biskra 6, ASO Chlef 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
US Biskra
- vs Khenchela21 Nov · Ligue 1win 32%
ASO Chlef
- vs Olympique Akbou21 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at USM Alger28 Nov · Ligue 1win 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.