Regular Season - 8 · 30 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

ASO Chlef vs ES Setif Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: ASO Chlef 1–0 ES Setif

The model makes it 36% ASO Chlef, 29% draw, 35% ES Setif — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ASO Chlef 1.31, ES Setif 1.28.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,027 settled matches.

A tight game: ASO Chlef and ES Setif are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. ASO Chlef's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and ES Setif's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • ASO Chlef are 14th on 4 points from 7 games; ES Setif are 12th on 5 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
  • ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MB Rouisset.
  • ES Setif are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Témouchent.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2026, ended ASO Chlef 1–0 ES Setif.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ASO Chlef vs ES Setif

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ASO Chlef win Draw ES Setif win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 0–19%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–28%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read ASO Chlef first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 38%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts ASO Chlef at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ASO Chlef vs ES Setif

ASO Chlef

Ligue 1

  • D1-1MB Rouisset24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
  • D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026
  • L0-1away to JS Kabylie9 October 2026
  • L0-1MC Oran18 September 2026

ES Setif

Ligue 1

  • L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
  • W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026

What these results say

  • ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • ASO Chlef conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for ASO Chlef had two goals or fewer.
  • ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14ASO Chlef7043611-54
12ES Setif612376+15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

ASO Chlef

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today

Win 41%
Draw 49%
Defeat 56%

ES Setif

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today

Win 11%
Draw 16%
Defeat 19%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: ASO Chlef vs ES Setif

  • 6 March 2026ASO Chlef 1–0 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 4 October 2025ES Setif 1–1 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 11 April 2025ASO Chlef 0–1 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 2 November 2024ES Setif 1–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 24 March 2024ES Setif 0–0 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 18 November 2023ASO Chlef 2–1 ES SetifLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

ASO Chlef carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.29 for ES Setif. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for ASO Chlef and 1.28 for ES Setif. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

ASO Chlef rate 0.47 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Setif rate 0.56 and 1.71.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ES Setif, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ASO Chlef a 0% chance of the title and ES Setif 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

How the call on ASO Chlef v ES Setif has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 6 updates it reads 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is ASO Chlef's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. ASO Chlef win36%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. ES Setif win35%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ASO Chlef the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for ASO Chlef against 1.28 for ES Setif. ASO Chlef's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.71 for ES Setif.

How the model reaches 36% for ASO Chlef to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ASO Chlef to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, ASO Chlef's ratings take away 31 points and ES Setif's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. ASO Chlef's ratings13%−31
  4. ES Setif's ratings36%+23

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

ASO ChlefES Setif
7Matches6
0W 4D 3LRecord1W 2D 3L
6 0.9 per gameGoals scored7 1.2 per game
11 1.6 per gameGoals conceded6 1.0 per game
0 of 7Clean sheets1 of 6
3 of 7Failed to score3 of 6
–Penalties scored1 of 2
12 1.7 per gameYellow cards10 1.7 per game
2Red cards1

ASO Chlef at home · ES Setif away

4Played2
0W 3D 1LRecord0W 1D 1L
5–6Goals for – against0–1
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 2

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: ASO Chlef 7, ES Setif 6.

ASO Chlef scored 211120
ES Setif conceded 201003
ES Setif scored 101013
ASO Chlef conceded 302211

ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); ASO Chlef have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

ASO Chlef

ES Setif

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.