JS Kabylie
vs
JS El Biar
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: JS Kabylie 2–1 JS El Biar
The model makes it 55% JS Kabylie, 23% draw, 22% JS El Biar — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: JS Kabylie 2.30, JS El Biar 1.29.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,587 settled matches.
Edge to JS Kabylie: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. JS Kabylie's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and JS El Biar's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- JS Kabylie are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; JS El Biar are 7th on 8 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- JS Kabylie are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Khenchela.
- JS El Biar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to MC Oran.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts JS Kabylie at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into JS Kabylie vs JS El Biar
JS Kabylie
Ligue 1
- W3-0away to Khenchela24 October 2026
- W4-1US Biskra18 October 2026
- D1-1away to ES Setif14 October 2026
- W1-0ASO Chlef9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Témouchent17 September 2026
JS El Biar
Ligue 1
- D0-0MC Oran23 October 2026
- W4-2away to CS Constantine17 October 2026
- L2-3CR Belouizdad12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ben Aknoun7 October 2026
- W4-0JS Saoura18 September 2026
What these results say
- JS Kabylie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- JS El Biar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for JS El Biar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | JS Kabylie | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
JS Kabylie
Chance to finish in the top two · 40% today
JS El Biar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
JS Kabylie carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.35 for JS El Biar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.30 goals for JS Kabylie and 1.29 for JS El Biar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
JS Kabylie rate 0.68 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; JS El Biar rate 0.73 and 2.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS Kabylie a 21.8% chance of the title and JS El Biar 1.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on JS Kabylie v JS El Biar has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 45% / 28% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 7 updates it reads 55% / 23% / 22%: the biggest move is JS Kabylie's chance of winning, up 10 points.
- JS Kabylie win55%▲ +10
- Draw23%▼ −5
- JS El Biar win22%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives JS Kabylie the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.30 expected goals for JS Kabylie against 1.29 for JS El Biar. JS Kabylie's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/2.08 for JS El Biar.
How the model reaches 55% for JS Kabylie to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Kabylie to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, JS Kabylie's ratings take away 19 points and JS El Biar's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- JS Kabylie's ratings25%−19
- JS El Biar's ratings55%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
JS Kabylie at home · JS El Biar away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Kabylie 6, JS El Biar 7.
JS Kabylie score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); JS El Biar have let in 2 there.
JS El Biar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); JS Kabylie have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
JS Kabylie
- at Olympique Akbou7 Nov · Ligue 1win 35%
- at JS Saoura7 Nov · Ligue 1win 37%
- vs Ben Aknoun21 Nov · Ligue 1win 56%
JS El Biar
- vs ASO Chlef7 Nov · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs MC Alger8 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- at ES Setif21 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs US Biskra28 Nov · Ligue 1win 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.