MB Rouisset
vs
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MB Rouisset 1–0 Ben Aknoun
The model makes it 47% MB Rouisset, 27% draw, 26% Ben Aknoun — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MB Rouisset 1.67, Ben Aknoun 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,265 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. MB Rouisset's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Ben Aknoun's from 36, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MB Rouisset are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Ben Aknoun are 10th on 7 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- MB Rouisset are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to ASO Chlef.
- Ben Aknoun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to JS Saoura.
- Last 2 meetings: Ben Aknoun 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 March 2026, ended Ben Aknoun 3–2 MB Rouisset.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MB Rouisset vs Ben Aknoun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MB Rouisset at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MB Rouisset vs Ben Aknoun
MB Rouisset
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef24 October 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Témouchent14 October 2026
- W1-0USM Alger8 October 2026
- L0-2away to MC Alger18 September 2026
Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to JS Saoura24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
- D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
- D1-1away to Khenchela18 September 2026
- D2-2US Biskra10 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.
- MB Rouisset scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MB Rouisset
Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today
Ben Aknoun
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: MB Rouisset vs Ben Aknoun
- 18 March 2026Ben Aknoun 3–2 MB RouissetLigue 1
- 25 October 2025MB Rouisset 0–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MB Rouisset carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.28 for Ben Aknoun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for MB Rouisset and 1.10 for Ben Aknoun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MB Rouisset rate 0.53 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ben Aknoun rate 0.62 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MB Rouisset a 4.7% chance of the title and Ben Aknoun 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,338 correct results out of 4,879 settled predictions (48%), with 481 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on MB Rouisset v Ben Aknoun has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 6 updates it reads 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is MB Rouisset's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- MB Rouisset win47%▲ +9
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Ben Aknoun win26%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MB Rouisset the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for MB Rouisset against 1.10 for Ben Aknoun. MB Rouisset's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.94 for Ben Aknoun.
How the model reaches 47% for MB Rouisset to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MB Rouisset to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, MB Rouisset's ratings take away 24 points and Ben Aknoun's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- MB Rouisset's ratings20%−24
- Ben Aknoun's ratings47%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MB Rouisset at home · Ben Aknoun away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MB Rouisset 7, Ben Aknoun 6.
MB Rouisset score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); Ben Aknoun have let in 2 there.
Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); MB Rouisset have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MB Rouisset
- at US Biskra7 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at ES Setif7 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- vs CS Constantine21 Nov · Ligue 1win 54%
- at Khenchela28 Nov · Ligue 1win 35%
Ben Aknoun
- vs MC Oran7 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs CR Belouizdad8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at JS Kabylie21 Nov · Ligue 1win 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.