Jong PSV U21
vs
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Jong PSV U21 1–0 Jong Utrecht
The model makes it 46% Jong PSV U21, 27% draw, 27% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Jong PSV U21 1.62, Jong Utrecht 1.11.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Jong PSV U21's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Jong Utrecht's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Jong PSV U21 are 13th on 17 points from 14 games; Jong Utrecht are 19th on 11 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Jong PSV U21 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to VVV Venlo.
- Jong Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Den Bosch.
- Last 6 meetings: Jong PSV U21 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2026, ended Jong Utrecht 5–3 Jong PSV U21.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
Jong PSV U21 at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht
Jong PSV U21
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to VVV Venlo6 November 2026
- L0-2NAC Breda2 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Eindhoven23 October 2026
- L0-1Dordrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Roda9 October 2026
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie
- D1-1away to Den Bosch7 November 2026
- W3-2Dordrecht2 November 2026
- L2-6away to FC Volendam23 October 2026
- L1-2Roda19 October 2026
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
What these results say
- Jong PSV U21 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong PSV U21 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong PSV U21 had two goals or fewer.
- Jong Utrecht scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jong PSV U21 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 | Jong Utrecht | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Jong PSV U21
Chance to finish in the top eight · 15% today
Jong Utrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong Utrecht
- 19 January 2026Jong Utrecht 5–3 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 21 November 2025Jong PSV U21 3–3 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 9 May 2025Jong PSV U21 3–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 16 August 2024Jong Utrecht 0–2 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
- 22 April 2024Jong PSV U21 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 1 December 2023Jong Utrecht 0–0 Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Jong PSV U21 and Jong Utrecht
Jong PSV U21
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jong PSV U21 the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 against 1.11 for Jong Utrecht. Jong PSV U21's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.07 for Jong Utrecht.
How the model reaches 46% for Jong PSV U21 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jong PSV U21 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Jong PSV U21's ratings change nothing and Jong Utrecht's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Jong PSV U21's ratings44%±0
- Jong Utrecht's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Jong PSV U21 at home · Jong Utrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong PSV U21 14, Jong Utrecht 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jong PSV U21
- at MVV27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- vs De Graafschap7 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Emmen11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs FC Eindhoven21 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Jong Utrecht
- vs Almere City FC27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- at Helmond Sport4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Waalwijk11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at VVV Venlo19 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.