Regular Season - 16 · 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC OSS vs Roda Eerste Divisie prediction

Frans Heesen Stadion, Oss

Our model says: FC OSS 1–0 Roda

The model makes it 39% FC OSS, 31% draw, 30% Roda — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC OSS 1.18, Roda 0.99.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. FC OSS's rating is built from 52 Eerste Divisie matches and Roda's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • FC OSS are 16th on 14 points from 14 games; Roda are 5th on 25 points from 14 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • FC OSS are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Waalwijk.
  • Roda have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Heracles.
  • Last 6 meetings: Roda 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 January 2026, ended Roda 1–2 FC OSS.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC OSS vs Roda

44%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC OSS win Draw Roda win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read FC OSS first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

FC OSS at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC OSS vs Roda

FC OSS

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Waalwijk6 November 2026
  • L0-2away to Heracles2 November 2026
  • D3-3Jong Ajax23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Den Bosch16 October 2026
  • W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-5away to Heracles6 November 2026
  • W2-1Jong AZ30 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Almere City FC23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026
  • D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC OSS conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Roda scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Roda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Roda.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16FC OSS144282023-314
5Roda147431817+125

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

FC OSS

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today

Win 12%
Draw 17%
Defeat 20%

Roda

Chance to finish in the top eight · 71% today

Win 78%
Draw 72%
Defeat 67%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Roda

  • 23 January 2026Roda 1–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 26 September 2025FC OSS 1–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 17 January 2025FC OSS 0–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 16 August 2024Roda 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
  • 12 April 2024FC OSS 1–4 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 25 August 2023Roda 2–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC OSS and Roda

FC OSS

GoalsAssists

  • M. Hinoke50

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Roda (5th, with FC OSS 16th), while our numbers lean to FC OSS. FC OSS rate 0.52 in attack and 1.67 in defence, Roda 0.49 and 1.40 (lower is better in defence), so FC OSS have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 11-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC OSS a 0% chance of the title and Roda 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on FC OSS v Roda has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 36% / 32% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 39% / 31% / 30%: the biggest move is FC OSS's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC OSS win39%▲ +3
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Roda win30%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

FC OSS Roda
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.4
1.18 Model expected goals (this match) 0.99

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC OSS the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC OSS against 0.99 for Roda. FC OSS's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.4 for Roda.

FC OSS carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.34 for Roda. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for FC OSS to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC OSS to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, FC OSS's ratings change nothing and Roda's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. FC OSS's ratings41%±0
  5. Roda's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FC OSSRoda
14Matches14
4W 2D 8LRecord7W 4D 3L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored18 1.3 per game
23 1.6 per gameGoals conceded17 1.2 per game
1 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
4 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
24 1.7 per gameYellow cards19 1.4 per game
1Red cards0
4-3-3 12×Usual shape3-4-2-1 11×

FC OSS at home · Roda away

7Played8
4W 2D 1LRecord3W 2D 3L
17–9Goals for – against8–12
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC OSS 14, Roda 14.

FC OSS scored 353345
Roda conceded 312423
Roda scored 314443
FC OSS conceded 235224

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC OSS

  • at Jong AZ27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
  • vs Almere City FC4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
  • vs FC Eindhoven11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 49%
  • at MVV18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 36%

Roda

  • vs De Graafschap29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
  • at FC Eindhoven6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
  • vs Den Bosch11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
  • at NAC Breda18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.