Jeju United FC
vs
Gwangju FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Jeju United FC 2–1 Gwangju FC
The model makes it 51% Jeju United FC, 25% draw, 24% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jeju United FC 1.86, Gwangju FC 1.09.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,616 settled matches.
Edge to Jeju United FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Jeju United FC's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Gwangju FC's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- Jeju United FC are 7th on 46 points from 33 games; Gwangju FC are bottom on 21 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- Jeju United FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Incheon United.
- Gwangju FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Bucheon FC 1995.
- Last 6 meetings: Gwangju FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Gwangju FC 0–1 Jeju United FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeju United FC at 51% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 1,223 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
Jeju United FC
K League 1
- L1-3away to Incheon United24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
What these results say
- Jeju United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jeju United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jeju United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gwangju FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 69 | -39 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jeju United FC vs Gwangju FC
- 9 September 2026Gwangju FC 0–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 26 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 1 March 2026Jeju United FC 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 November 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 30 August 2025Jeju United FC 0–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 18 June 2025Jeju United FC 0–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Jeju United FC and Gwangju FC
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Emerson Negueba42
- Lee Kun-Hee41
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale80
- A. Ba Loua34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jeju United FC carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.27 for Gwangju FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Jeju United FC and 1.09 for Gwangju FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeju United FC rate 0.66 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gwangju FC rate 0.62 and 1.98.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeju United FC the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Jeju United FC against 1.09 for Gwangju FC. Jeju United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.98 for Gwangju FC.
How the model reaches 51% for Jeju United FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jeju United FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Jeju United FC's ratings take away 17 points and Gwangju FC's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Jeju United FC's ratings22%−17
- Gwangju FC's ratings51%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jeju United FC at home · Gwangju FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Jeju United FC 33, Gwangju FC 33.
Jeju United FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Gwangju FC have let in 18 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Jeju United FC
- at Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- at FC Anyang28 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- vs Bucheon FC 19955 Dec · K League 1win 48%
Gwangju FC
- vs Bucheon FC 199522 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- at Pohang Steelers28 Nov · K League 1win 29%
- at FC Anyang5 Dec · K League 1win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.