Gwangju FC
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gwangju FC 0–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
The model makes it 31% Gwangju FC, 28% draw, 41% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.22, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.48.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Edge to Gimcheon Sangmu FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Gwangju FC's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- Gwangju FC are bottom on 21 points from 33 games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 10th on 34 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- Gwangju FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Bucheon FC 1995.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Daejeon Citizen.
- Last 6 meetings: Gwangju FC 1 win to 0, 5 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–2 Gwangju FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
- D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- L1-2Daejeon Citizen24 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Seoul18 October 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bucheon FC 199519 September 2026
- D2-2Gangwon FC13 September 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gwangju FC had three goals or more.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 69 | -39 | 21 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 6 September 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–2 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 July 2026Gwangju FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 17 March 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 22 July 2025Gwangju FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 5 May 2025Gwangju FC 1–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 16 March 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale80
- A. Ba Loua34
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gwangju FC carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.43 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.48 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gwangju FC rate 0.62 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.59 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 1.48 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.39 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
How the model reaches 41% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Gwangju FC's ratings add 34 points and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings take away 26 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Gwangju FC's ratings67%+34
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings41%−26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gwangju FC at home · Gimcheon Sangmu FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Gwangju FC 33, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Gwangju FC
- at Jeju United FC7 Nov · K League 1win 24%
- vs Bucheon FC 199522 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- at Pohang Steelers28 Nov · K League 1win 29%
- at FC Anyang5 Dec · K League 1win 28%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- vs FC Anyang7 Nov · K League 1win 41%
- vs Jeju United FC22 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- at Bucheon FC 199528 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- vs Pohang Steelers5 Dec · K League 1win 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.