Championship Group - 34 · 1 November 2026, 05:00 UTC

Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC K League 1 prediction

Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan

Our model says: Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–1 Gangwon FC

The model makes it 35% Ulsan Hyundai FC, 29% draw, 36% Gangwon FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27, Gangwon FC 1.29.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,038 settled matches.

A tight game: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Ulsan Hyundai FC's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Gangwon FC's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.

Key facts

  • Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 51 points from 33 games; Gangwon FC are 5th on 48 points from 33 games — K League 1.
  • Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Pohang Steelers.
  • Gangwon FC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Seoul.
  • Last 6 meetings: Gangwon FC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–3 Gangwon FC.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC

53%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ulsan Hyundai FC win Draw Gangwon FC win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Ulsan Hyundai FC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 38%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gangwon FC at 36% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 3,785 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC

K League 1

  • D2-2Pohang Steelers24 October 2026
  • W2-1Bucheon FC 199517 October 2026
  • L3-4away to Gwangju FC11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
  • W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026

Gangwon FC

K League 1

  • D1-1away to FC Seoul24 October 2026
  • D1-1Incheon United18 October 2026
  • W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026
  • D0-0Incheon United27 September 2026
  • L0-1Jeju United FC20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ulsan Hyundai FC had three goals or more.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Gangwon FC had two goals or fewer.
  • Gangwon FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Ulsan Hyundai FC33156125247+551
5Gangwon FC33111574030+1048

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC

  • 16 August 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–3 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 17 May 2026Gangwon FC 2–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
  • 28 February 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 27 July 2025Gangwon FC 2–2 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
  • 17 May 2025Gangwon FC 1–1 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
  • 19 April 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Gangwon FCK League 1

Leading scorers: Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC

GoalsAssists

  • Yago Cariello101
  • Lee Dong-Gyeong88

Gangwon FC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Halaihal40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Ulsan Hyundai FC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.56 for Gangwon FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.29 for Gangwon FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.78 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gangwon FC rate 0.62 and 1.15.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ulsan Hyundai FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.29 for Gangwon FC. Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.15 for Gangwon FC.

How the model reaches 36% for Gangwon FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gangwon FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings add 22 points and Gangwon FC's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 36%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage33%−3
  3. Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings55%+22
  4. Gangwon FC's ratings36%−19

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Ulsan Hyundai FCGangwon FC
33Matches33
15W 6D 12LRecord11W 15D 7L
52 1.6 per gameGoals scored40 1.2 per game
47 1.4 per gameGoals conceded30 0.9 per game
6 of 33Clean sheets14 of 33
6 of 33Failed to score9 of 33
5 of 8Penalties scored3 of 6
48 1.5 per gameYellow cards68 2.1 per game
2Red cards3
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-4-2 28×

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home · Gangwon FC away

17Played16
9W 2D 6LRecord6W 6D 4L
30–26Goals for – against20–16
3 of 17Clean sheets7 of 16

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33, Gangwon FC 33.

Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 47991312
Gangwon FC conceded 658544

Ulsan Hyundai FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 4 there.

Gangwon FC scored 3586412
Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded 8875710

Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Ulsan Hyundai FC have let in 10 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Ulsan Hyundai FC

Gangwon FC

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.