Gimcheon Sangmu FC
vs
FC Anyang
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 FC Anyang
The model makes it 41% Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 29% draw, 30% FC Anyang — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37, FC Anyang 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and FC Anyang's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 10th on 34 points from 33 games; FC Anyang are 8th on 43 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Daejeon Citizen.
- FC Anyang are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Jeonbuk Motors.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 October 2026, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC Anyang.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- L1-2Daejeon Citizen24 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Seoul18 October 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Bucheon FC 199519 September 2026
- D2-2Gangwon FC13 September 2026
FC Anyang
K League 1
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Pohang Steelers18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC10 October 2026
- W2-1Ulsan Hyundai FC19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC13 September 2026
What these results say
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Anyang went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Anyang scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Anyang had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 34 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang
- 10 October 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC AnyangK League 1
- 13 May 2026FC Anyang 2–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 12 April 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 FC AnyangK League 1
- 18 October 2025FC Anyang 4–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 22 June 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–0 FC AnyangK League 1
- 8 March 2025FC Anyang 1–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
FC Anyang
GoalsAssists
- Airton50
- Matheus Oliveira43
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.37 for FC Anyang. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.11 for FC Anyang. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC rate 0.59 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Anyang rate 0.63 and 1.63.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Anyang, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.11 for FC Anyang. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.63 for FC Anyang.
How the model reaches 41% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings take away 20 points and FC Anyang's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings19%−20
- FC Anyang's ratings41%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home · FC Anyang away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33, FC Anyang 33.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- vs Jeju United FC22 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- at Bucheon FC 199528 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- vs Pohang Steelers5 Dec · K League 1win 40%
FC Anyang
- at Pohang Steelers21 Nov · K League 1win 33%
- vs Jeju United FC28 Nov · K League 1win 33%
- vs Gwangju FC5 Dec · K League 1win 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.