Championship Group - 34 · 1 November 2026, 07:30 UTC

FC Seoul vs Incheon United K League 1 prediction

Seoul World Cup Stadium, Seoul

Our model says: FC Seoul 1–0 Incheon United

The model makes it 44% FC Seoul, 28% draw, 28% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.52, Incheon United 1.09.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. FC Seoul's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Incheon United's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.

Key facts

  • FC Seoul are top on 67 points from 33 games; Incheon United are 6th on 46 points from 33 games — K League 1.
  • FC Seoul are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Gangwon FC.
  • Incheon United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Jeju United FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: FC Seoul 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended FC Seoul 1–0 Incheon United.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FC Seoul vs Incheon United

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FC Seoul win Draw Incheon United win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read FC Seoul first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Seoul at 44% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into FC Seoul vs Incheon United

FC Seoul

K League 1

  • D1-1Gangwon FC24 October 2026
  • D2-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 October 2026
  • W2-1Jeju United FC10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026

Incheon United

K League 1

  • W3-1Jeju United FC24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gangwon FC18 October 2026
  • W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
  • D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Seoul scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Seoul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Seoul.
  • Incheon United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Seoul3320766129+3267
6Incheon United331210114335+846

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Incheon United

  • 5 September 2026FC Seoul 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 5 July 2026FC Seoul 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 28 February 2026Incheon United 1–2 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 27 July 2024Incheon United 0–1 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 11 May 2024Incheon United 1–2 FC SeoulK League 1
  • 10 March 2024FC Seoul 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1

Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Incheon United

FC Seoul

GoalsAssists

  • P. Klimala80

Incheon United

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mugoša111
  • M. Ferrier51

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.58 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Seoul and 1.09 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

FC Seoul rate 0.89 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.69 and 1.20.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1.09 for Incheon United. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.2 for Incheon United.

How the model reaches 44% for FC Seoul to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Seoul to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, FC Seoul's ratings take away 8 points and Incheon United's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage39%+3
  3. FC Seoul's ratings31%−8
  4. Incheon United's ratings44%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

FC SeoulIncheon United
33Matches33
20W 7D 6LRecord12W 10D 11L
61 1.8 per gameGoals scored43 1.3 per game
29 0.9 per gameGoals conceded35 1.1 per game
13 of 33Clean sheets9 of 33
6 of 33Failed to score7 of 33
2 of 2Penalties scored8 of 9
60 1.8 per gameYellow cards63 1.9 per game
3Red cards3
4-4-2 23×Usual shape4-4-2 27×

FC Seoul at home · Incheon United away

16Played16
9W 4D 3LRecord5W 6D 5L
27–14Goals for – against20–18
8 of 16Clean sheets5 of 16

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: FC Seoul 33, Incheon United 33.

FC Seoul scored 741120613
Incheon United conceded 428749

FC Seoul score most often in the 46–60 minute window (20 goals); Incheon United have let in 7 there.

Incheon United scored 2516497
FC Seoul conceded 443387

Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); FC Seoul have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

FC Seoul

Incheon United

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.