Relegation Group - 34 · 1 November 2026, 05:00 UTC

Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction

Pohang Steel Yard, Pohang

Our model says: Pohang Steelers 0–1 Jeju United FC

The model makes it 31% Pohang Steelers, 31% draw, 38% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Pohang Steelers 1.03, Jeju United FC 1.18.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,038 settled matches.

Edge to Jeju United FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Pohang Steelers's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Jeju United FC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.

Key facts

  • Pohang Steelers are 9th on 42 points from 33 games; Jeju United FC are 7th on 46 points from 33 games — K League 1.
  • Pohang Steelers are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ulsan Hyundai FC.
  • Jeju United FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Incheon United.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 August 2026, ended Jeju United FC 1–2 Pohang Steelers.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC

45%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Pohang Steelers win Draw Jeju United FC win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 1–011%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Pohang Steelers first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 29%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jeju United FC at 38% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 3,785 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC

Pohang Steelers

K League 1

  • D2-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC24 October 2026
  • D0-0FC Anyang18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Incheon United9 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Seoul20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Daejeon Citizen12 September 2026

Jeju United FC

K League 1

  • L1-3away to Incheon United24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026

What these results say

  • Pohang Steelers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pohang Steelers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Pohang Steelers had three goals or more.
  • Jeju United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeju United FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Pohang Steelers33119133039-942
7Jeju United FC331210113937+246

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC

  • 25 August 2026Jeju United FC 1–2 Pohang SteelersK League 1
  • 18 July 2026Jeju United FC 2–1 Pohang SteelersK League 1
  • 11 April 2026Pohang Steelers 0–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 21 September 2025Pohang Steelers 1–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 21 June 2025Pohang Steelers 2–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 20 April 2025Jeju United FC 2–0 Pohang SteelersK League 1

Leading scorers: Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC

Pohang Steelers

GoalsAssists

  • Lee Ho-Jae40

Jeju United FC

GoalsAssists

  • Emerson Negueba42
  • Lee Kun-Hee41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Pohang Steelers carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.48 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.18 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Pohang Steelers rate 0.52 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.66 and 1.39.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Jeju United FC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pohang Steelers against 1.18 for Jeju United FC. Pohang Steelers's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.39 for Jeju United FC.

How the model reaches 38% for Jeju United FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jeju United FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Pohang Steelers's ratings add 24 points and Jeju United FC's ratings take away 19 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage33%−3
  3. Pohang Steelers's ratings57%+24
  4. Jeju United FC's ratings38%−19

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Pohang SteelersJeju United FC
33Matches33
11W 9D 13LRecord12W 10D 11L
30 0.9 per gameGoals scored39 1.2 per game
39 1.2 per gameGoals conceded37 1.1 per game
11 of 33Clean sheets11 of 33
14 of 33Failed to score7 of 33
4 of 6Penalties scored4 of 4
55 1.7 per gameYellow cards63 1.9 per game
5Red cards4
4-3-3 10×Usual shape4-4-2 15×

Pohang Steelers at home · Jeju United FC away

14Played16
4W 4D 6LRecord7W 3D 6L
6–11Goals for – against21–19
6 of 14Clean sheets5 of 16

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Pohang Steelers 33, Jeju United FC 33.

Pohang Steelers scored 536655
Jeju United FC conceded 2371058
Jeju United FC scored 377679
Pohang Steelers conceded 25731111

Jeju United FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Pohang Steelers have let in 11 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Pohang Steelers

Jeju United FC

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.