Championship Group - 35 · 8 November 2026, 07:30 UTC

Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors K League 1 prediction

Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Chuncheon

Our model says: Gangwon FC 1–0 Jeonbuk Motors

The model makes it 35% Gangwon FC, 32% draw, 33% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.08, Jeonbuk Motors 1.02.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,038 settled matches.

A tight game: Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Gangwon FC's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Jeonbuk Motors's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.

Key facts

  • Gangwon FC are 5th on 48 points from 33 games; Jeonbuk Motors are 4th on 48 points from 33 games — K League 1.
  • Gangwon FC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Seoul.
  • Jeonbuk Motors have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Anyang.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 9 September 2026, ended Gangwon FC 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

43%
Both teams to score
35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gangwon FC win Draw Jeonbuk Motors win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–013%
  3. 1–013%
  4. 0–112%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 2–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Gangwon FC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 27%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gangwon FC at 35% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 3,785 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Gangwon FC

K League 1

  • D1-1away to FC Seoul24 October 2026
  • D1-1Incheon United18 October 2026
  • W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026
  • D0-0Incheon United27 September 2026
  • L0-1Jeju United FC20 September 2026

Jeonbuk Motors

K League 1

  • D1-1away to FC Anyang24 October 2026
  • W3-2Jeju United FC18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen9 October 2026
  • D2-2Gwangju FC20 September 2026
  • L1-2FC Seoul12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Gangwon FC had two goals or fewer.
  • Gangwon FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jeonbuk Motors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jeonbuk Motors conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jeonbuk Motors.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Gangwon FC33111574030+1048
4Jeonbuk Motors33121294333+1048

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

  • 9 September 2026Gangwon FC 1–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 4 July 2026Jeonbuk Motors 1–2 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 18 April 2026Gangwon FC 1–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 1 November 2025Gangwon FC 0–0 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
  • 27 August 2025Gangwon FC 1–2 Jeonbuk MotorsFA Cup
  • 20 August 2025Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Gangwon FCFA Cup

Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Jeonbuk Motors

Gangwon FC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Halaihal40

Jeonbuk Motors

GoalsAssists

  • Tiago Orobó90
  • Lee Seung-Woo44

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.57 for Jeonbuk Motors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Gangwon FC and 1.02 for Jeonbuk Motors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Gangwon FC rate 0.62 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.70 and 1.23.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeonbuk Motors, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 1.02 for Jeonbuk Motors. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.23 for Jeonbuk Motors.

How the model reaches 35% for Gangwon FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gangwon FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Gangwon FC's ratings take away 15 points and Jeonbuk Motors's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 35%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage39%+3
  3. Gangwon FC's ratings24%−15
  4. Jeonbuk Motors's ratings35%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Gangwon FCJeonbuk Motors
33Matches33
11W 15D 7LRecord12W 12D 9L
40 1.2 per gameGoals scored43 1.3 per game
30 0.9 per gameGoals conceded33 1.0 per game
14 of 33Clean sheets13 of 33
9 of 33Failed to score7 of 33
3 of 6Penalties scored1 of 2
68 2.1 per gameYellow cards65 2.0 per game
3Red cards0
4-4-2 28×Usual shape4-2-3-1 25×

Gangwon FC at home · Jeonbuk Motors away

17Played17
5W 9D 3LRecord4W 9D 4L
20–14Goals for – against17–14
7 of 17Clean sheets6 of 17

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Gangwon FC 33, Jeonbuk Motors 33.

Gangwon FC scored 3586412
Jeonbuk Motors conceded 4431029

Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Jeonbuk Motors have let in 9 there.

Jeonbuk Motors scored 43109214
Gangwon FC conceded 658544

Jeonbuk Motors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 4 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Gangwon FC

  • vs Daejeon Citizen21 Nov · K League 1win 36%
  • at Incheon United29 Nov · K League 1win 30%
  • vs FC Seoul6 Dec · K League 1win 31%

Jeonbuk Motors

  • vs FC Seoul21 Nov · K League 1win 33%
  • at Kashima25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.