FC Seoul
vs
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Seoul 2–1 Ulsan Hyundai FC
The model makes it 52% FC Seoul, 24% draw, 24% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 2.07, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.24.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,616 settled matches.
Edge to FC Seoul: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. FC Seoul's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Ulsan Hyundai FC's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- FC Seoul are top on 67 points from 33 games; Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 51 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- FC Seoul are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Gangwon FC.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Pohang Steelers.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Seoul 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 September 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 FC Seoul.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Seoul at 52% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 1,223 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
FC Seoul
K League 1
- D1-1Gangwon FC24 October 2026
- D2-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeju United FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026
Ulsan Hyundai FC
K League 1
- D2-2Pohang Steelers24 October 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 199517 October 2026
- L3-4away to Gwangju FC11 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang19 September 2026
- W2-1Incheon United12 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Seoul scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Seoul.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ulsan Hyundai FC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 29 | +32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 47 | +5 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC
- 8 September 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 FC SeoulK League 1
- 26 July 2026FC Seoul 1–3 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 15 April 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–4 FC SeoulK League 1
- 24 August 2025FC Seoul 3–2 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 20 July 2025FC Seoul 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
- 5 April 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–0 FC SeoulK League 1
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC
FC Seoul
GoalsAssists
- P. Klimala80
Ulsan Hyundai FC
GoalsAssists
- Yago Cariello101
- Lee Dong-Gyeong88
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.49 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for FC Seoul and 1.24 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.89 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ulsan Hyundai FC rate 0.78 and 1.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1.24 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.64 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.
How the model reaches 52% for FC Seoul to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Seoul to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, FC Seoul's ratings take away 8 points and Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- FC Seoul's ratings31%−8
- Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings52%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Seoul at home · Ulsan Hyundai FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: FC Seoul 33, Ulsan Hyundai FC 33.
FC Seoul score most often in the 46–60 minute window (20 goals); Ulsan Hyundai FC have let in 5 there.
Ulsan Hyundai FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); FC Seoul have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Seoul
- at Jeonbuk Motors21 Nov · K League 1win 39%
- vs Daejeon Citizen28 Nov · K League 1win 46%
- at Gangwon FC6 Dec · K League 1win 39%
Ulsan Hyundai FC
- at Incheon United21 Nov · K League 1win 29%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors29 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- at Daejeon Citizen6 Dec · K League 1win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.