Jeonbuk Motors
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Jeonbuk Motors 2–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 38% Jeonbuk Motors, 27% draw, 35% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.49, Daejeon Citizen 1.39.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,038 settled matches.
A tight game: Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Jeonbuk Motors's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Daejeon Citizen's from 71, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- Jeonbuk Motors are 4th on 48 points from 33 games; Daejeon Citizen are 3rd on 49 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- Jeonbuk Motors have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Anyang.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 October 2026, ended Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Jeonbuk Motors.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jeonbuk Motors at 38% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 3,785 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen
Jeonbuk Motors
K League 1
- D1-1away to FC Anyang24 October 2026
- W3-2Jeju United FC18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Daejeon Citizen9 October 2026
- D2-2Gwangju FC20 September 2026
- L1-2FC Seoul12 September 2026
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- W2-1away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 October 2026
- W3-2Gwangju FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United20 September 2026
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
What these results say
- Jeonbuk Motors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Jeonbuk Motors.
- Daejeon Citizen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 48 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen
- 9 October 2026Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
- 21 July 2026Jeonbuk Motors 0–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 21 March 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
- 8 November 2025Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 13 September 2025Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 14 May 2025Daejeon Citizen 2–3 Jeonbuk MotorsFA Cup
Leading scorers: Jeonbuk Motors and Daejeon Citizen
Jeonbuk Motors
GoalsAssists
- Tiago Orobó90
- Lee Seung-Woo44
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira52
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.6 for Daejeon Citizen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.39 for Daejeon Citizen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.70 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Daejeon Citizen rate 0.89 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Daejeon Citizen, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeonbuk Motors the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.39 for Daejeon Citizen. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.5 for Daejeon Citizen.
How the model reaches 38% for Jeonbuk Motors to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jeonbuk Motors to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Jeonbuk Motors's ratings take away 14 points and Daejeon Citizen's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Jeonbuk Motors's ratings25%−14
- Daejeon Citizen's ratings38%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Jeonbuk Motors at home · Daejeon Citizen away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Jeonbuk Motors 33, Daejeon Citizen 33.
Jeonbuk Motors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 11 there.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Jeonbuk Motors have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Jeonbuk Motors
- vs Johor Darul Takzim FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 53%
- at Gangwon FC8 Nov · K League 1win 33%
- vs FC Seoul21 Nov · K League 1win 33%
- at Kashima25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
Daejeon Citizen
- at Kashiwa Reysol3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 28%
- vs Incheon United8 Nov · K League 1win 40%
- at Gangwon FC21 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.