Daejeon Citizen
vs
Incheon United
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Incheon United
The model makes it 40% Daejeon Citizen, 27% draw, 33% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.52, Incheon United 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Daejeon Citizen's rating is built from 71 K League 1 matches and Incheon United's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 662 matches.
Key facts
- Daejeon Citizen are 3rd on 49 points from 33 games; Incheon United are 6th on 46 points from 33 games — K League 1.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
- Incheon United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Jeju United FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Daejeon Citizen 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Incheon United 1–1 Daejeon Citizen.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 40% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- W2-1away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 October 2026
- W3-2Gwangju FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United20 September 2026
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
Incheon United
K League 1
- W3-1Jeju United FC24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gangwon FC18 October 2026
- W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
What these results say
- Daejeon Citizen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 49 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon United
- 20 September 2026Incheon United 1–1 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 5 May 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 March 2026Incheon United 1–3 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 10 November 2024Incheon United 1–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 17 August 2024Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 18 May 2024Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Incheon United
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira52
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša111
- M. Ferrier51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.58 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.31 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.89 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.69 and 1.20.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.31 for Incheon United. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.2 for Incheon United.
How the model reaches 40% for Daejeon Citizen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Daejeon Citizen to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Daejeon Citizen's ratings take away 13 points and Incheon United's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Daejeon Citizen's ratings26%−13
- Incheon United's ratings40%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Daejeon Citizen at home · Incheon United away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Daejeon Citizen 33, Incheon United 33.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Incheon United have let in 9 there.
Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Daejeon Citizen
- at Gangwon FC21 Nov · K League 1win 35%
- vs Beijing Guoan24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 56%
Incheon United
- vs Ulsan Hyundai FC21 Nov · K League 1win 44%
- vs Gangwon FC29 Nov · K League 1win 38%
- at Jeonbuk Motors6 Dec · K League 1win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.