25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Italy vs Belgium UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Italy 0-2 Belgium.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Italy, 31% draw, 35% Belgium — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Belgium at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Italy0%Draw1%Belgium99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Mika Godtsassist: Kevin De Bruyne
25'
Nicolas Raskin
29'
Diego Moreira
58'
🔁Kevin De Bruyneout: Hans Vanaken
58'
🔁Diego Moreiraout: Dodi Lukebakio
Gianluca Mancini
63'
🔁Diego Coppolaout: Giorgio Scalvini
65'
🔁Pio Espositoout: Daniel Maldini
65'
🔁Alessandro Romanoout: Davide Frattesi
65'
69'
⚽Dodi Lukebakioassist: Charles De Ketelaere
74'
🔁Nicolas Raskinout: Romeo Lavia
80'
Romeo Lavia
🔁Nicolò Barellaout: Issa Doumbia
80'
🔁Nicolo Cambiaghiout: Mohamed Alì Zoma
80'
83'
🔁Mika Godtsout: Matias Fernandez-Pardo
83'
🔁Charles De Ketelaereout: Romelu Lukaku
89'
Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Daniel Maldini
90+1'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
90+4'
90+4'
Romelu Lukaku

Match stats — Italy vs Belgium

56%Possession44%
21Shots19
6On target8
4Corners8

Line-ups

Italy 4-3-3
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 6D. CoppolaD
  • 5R. CalafioriD
  • 18N. BarellaM
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 8S. TonaliM
  • 9M. KeanF
  • 7F. EspositoF
  • 21N. CambiaghiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. CarnesecchiG
  • 17M. ZomaF
  • 3H. AhanorD
  • 15I. DoumbiaM
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 2M. KayodeD
  • 20D. MaldiniF
  • 13R. MandragoraM
  • 10G. RaspadoriF
Coach: R. Mancini
Belgium 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. LammensG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 15N. NgoyD
  • 4B. MecheleD
  • 5M. De CuyperD
  • 8Y. TielemansM
  • 23N. RaskinM
  • 19Diego MoreiraM
  • 7K. De BruyneM
  • 10M. GodtsM
  • 17C. De KetelaereF
Substitutes
  • 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
  • 16M. KeitaM
  • 6R. LaviaM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 14D. LukebakioF
  • 11L. OpendaF
  • 18J. SeysD
  • 3A. TheateD
  • 20H. VanakenM
Coach: M. van Bommel

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Italy421185+37
3Belgium420265+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Italy vs Belgium

  • 14 November 2024Belgium 0–1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
  • 10 October 2024Italy 2–2 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
  • 10 October 2021Italy 2–1 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
  • 2 July 2021Belgium 1–2 ItalyEuro Championship
  • 13 June 2016Belgium 0–2 ItalyEuro Championship

The full Italy vs Belgium record →

Leading scorers: Italy and Belgium

Italy

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Belgium

GoalsAssists

  • D. Lukebakio21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Belgium won 2–0 at Italy. The model had made a win for Belgium its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Mika Godts 20' for Belgium, Dodi Lukebakio 69' for Belgium.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.