25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Armenia vs Latvia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan
Referee: Martin Matosa
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Armenia 2-0 Latvia.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Armenia, 32% draw, 33% Latvia — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Armenia at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Armenia99%Draw1%Latvia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Georgiy Harutyunyanassist: Eduard Spertsyan
31'
🔁Jose·Julioout: Argishti·Petrosyan
45'
58'
🔁Raivis Jurkovskisout: Maksims Tonisevs
🔁narek hovhannisyanout: Zhirayr Shaghoyan
60'
Artur Serobyan
62'
68'
🔁Markuss Strodsout: Roberts Uldriķis
68'
🔁Eduards Daskevicsout: Oskars Vientiess
🔁Artur Miranyanout: Artur Gharibyan
69'
⚽Artur Gharibyanassist: Zhirayr Shaghoyan
75'
🔁Artur Serobyanout: Edgar Sevikyan
82'
🔁Georgiy Harutyunyanout: Erik Simonyan
82'
87'
🔁Antonijs Černomordijsout: Danila Patijčuks
87'
🔁Vladislavs Gutkovskisout: Albert aleksanjan

Match stats — Armenia vs Latvia

56%Possession44%
14Shots5
4On target1
10Corners2

Line-ups

Armenia 5-4-1
  • 1O. ČančarevićG
  • 2A. BandikyanD
  • 3E. PiloyanD
  • 20J. JulioD
  • 4G. HarutyunyanD
  • 21N. TiknizyanD
  • 9A. SerobyanM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 10E. SpertsyanM
  • 23K. HovhannisyanM
  • 18A. MiranyanF
Substitutes
  • 12A. BeglaryanG
  • 8N. HovhannisyanF
  • 13K. AyvazyanD
  • 17A. GharibyanF
  • 22N. GrigoryanF
  • 14G. ManvelyanM
  • 16G. MatinyanG
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 5A. PetrosyanD
Coach: E. Melikyan
Latvia 3-4-3
  • 23R. MatrevicsG
  • 21D. MeļņiksD
  • 5A. ČernomordijsD
  • 3D. CirkinD
  • 13R. JurkovskisM
  • 10L. VapneM
  • 15D. ZelenkovsM
  • 14A. CigaņiksM
  • 7E. DašķevičsF
  • 9V. GutkovskisF
  • 17M. StrodsF
Substitutes
  • 2D. BalodisD
  • 16G. ŽaleikoM
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 20R. UldriķisF
  • 22A. SaveļjevsM
  • 11R. SavaļnieksD
  • 1N. PuriņšG
  • 12F. OrolsG
  • 8E. EmsisM
Coach: P. Nicolato

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Armenia411245-14
4Latvia401326-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Armenia vs Latvia

  • 17 November 2024Latvia 1–2 ArmeniaUEFA Nations League
  • 7 September 2024Armenia 4–1 LatviaUEFA Nations League
  • 12 October 2023Latvia 2–0 ArmeniaEuro Championship - Qualification
  • 19 June 2023Armenia 2–1 LatviaEuro Championship - Qualification

The full Armenia vs Latvia record →

The result against the call

Armenia beat Latvia 2–0. The model had made a win for Armenia its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Georgiy Harutyunyan 31' for Armenia, Artur Gharibyan 75' for Armenia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.