25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Hungary vs Ukraine UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Puskás Aréna, Budapest
Referee: Jarred Gillett
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Hungary 0-1 Ukraine.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Hungary, 30% draw, 29% Ukraine — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hungary at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hungary0%Draw4%Ukraine96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

András Schäfer
5'
21'
Volodymyr Brazhko
42'
⚽Danylo Sikanassist: Heorhii Sudakov
🔁Milan Vitálisout: Milan Tóth
45'
45'
🔁Volodymyr Brazhkoout: Egor Nazaryna
🔁Dániel Lukácsout: Donat Barany
45'
49'
Ilya Krupskyi
59'
🔁Ilya Krupskyiout: Valeriy Bondar
59'
🔁Vladyslav Vanatout: Oleksandr Nazarenko
🔁Damir Redzicout: Gabor Jurek
62'
🔁Áron Csongvaiout: Rajmund Tóth
66'
66'
🔁Danylo Sikanout: Igor Krasnopir
71'
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Donat Barany
82'
🔁Mark Csingerout: Tamás Szűcs
84'
90+1'
🔁Heorhii Sudakovout: Oleksandr Drambayev
90+2'
Oleksandr Nazarenko
Dominik Szoboszlai
90+3'
90+4'
Viktor Tsygankov
Milos Kerkez
90+4'
90+4'
Mykola Matvienko

Match stats — Hungary vs Ukraine

57%Possession43%
17Shots10
4On target3
4Corners2

Line-ups

Hungary 4-3-1-2
  • 22B. TóthG
  • 14B. BollaD
  • 6W. OrbánD
  • 3M. CsingerD
  • 11M. KerkezD
  • 8M. VitálisM
  • 15Á. CsongvaiM
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 10D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 23D. RedzicF
  • 16D. LukacsF
Substitutes
  • 19R.TóthM
  • 20M. TóthF
  • 21A. TóthM
  • 7Tamás SzücsM
  • 4K. SzűcsD
  • 1Á. PécsiG
  • 2A. OsváthD
  • 18Z. NagyD
  • 5A. MarkgráfD
Coach: M. Rossi
Ukraine 4-3-3
  • 23D. RiznykG
  • 2I. KrupskyiD
  • 13I. ZabarnyiD
  • 22M. MatvienkoD
  • 16V. MykolenkoD
  • 18O. OcheretkoM
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 8H. SudakovM
  • 15V. TsygankovF
  • 14D. SikanF
  • 11V. VanatF
Substitutes
  • 5O. DrambaevD
  • 20O. ZubkovM
  • 9M. KhlanM
  • 10I. KrasnopirF
  • 17O. NazarenkoM
  • 19E. NazarynaM
  • 21M. PonomarenkoF
  • 3E. SarapiyM
  • 12A. TrubinG
Coach: Andrea Maldera

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Hungary421132+17
3Ukraine411225-34

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Ukraine won 1–0 at Hungary. The model had leaned towards a win for Hungary at 41% and given a win for Ukraine 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Danylo Sikan 42' for Ukraine. Sent off: Oleksandr Nazarenko (Ukraine) 90+2'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.