The model rates their attack at 1.33× the league average and their defence at 0.61× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — the model rates them above average at both ends. Next they host Belgium in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September 2026, a match the model gives them 34%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Italy vs Belgium
Italy host Belgium on 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 34% Italy, 31% draw and 35% Belgium, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.10 expected goals for Italy against 1.14. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Full preview and model analysis for Italy vs Belgium