25 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Georgia vs Northern Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi
Referee: Orel Grinfeld
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Georgia, 31% draw, 31% Northern Ireland — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Georgia at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Georgia3%Draw94%Northern Ireland3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Saba Kharebashviliout: Giorgi Chakvetadze
45'
•Luka Lochoshvili
62'
64'
Dan Ballard
⚽Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (pen)
65'
67'
Ciaron Brown
72'
🔁Ciaron Brownout: Ruairi McConville
73'
🔁Jamie Donleyout: Josh Magennis
73'
🔁Patrick Kellyout: Brodie Spencer
🔁Anzor Mekvabishviliout: Otar Kiteishvili
77'
🔁Giorgi Kvernadzeout: Zuriko Davitashvili
77'
🔁Luka Lochoshviliout: Jemal Tabidze
85'
🔁Saba Goglichidzeout: Ilia Beriashvili
85'
86'
🔁Tom Atchesonout: Ceadach O'Neill
90+5'
🔁Dan Ballardout: Paddy McNair
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
90+5'
90+5'
Justin Devenny
90+9'
⚽Shea Charlesassist: Trai Hume

Match stats — Georgia vs Northern Ireland

62%Possession38%
11Shots12
5On target5
9Corners1

Line-ups

Georgia 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. MamardashviliG
  • 5S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4L. LochoshviliD
  • 2O. KakabadzeM
  • 6G. KochorashviliM
  • 14A. MekvabishviliM
  • 16S. KharebashviliM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 22G. MikautadzeM
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
Substitutes
  • 10G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 13I. BeriashviliD
  • 9Z. DavitashviliF
  • 20G. GaguaF
  • 23L. GugeshashviliG
  • 8O. KiteishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 21J. TabidzeD
  • 19G. TsitaishviliF
Coach: W. Sagnol
Northern Ireland 3-4-2-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 18Tom AtchesonD
  • 4D. BallardD
  • 22C. BrownD
  • 5T. HumeM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 7E. GalbraithM
  • 3J. DevennyM
  • 16Patrick KellyM
  • 14I. PriceM
  • 10J. DonleyF
Substitutes
  • 12C. HazardG
  • 21J. MagennisF
  • 8C. MarshallF
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 17P. McNairD
  • 13K. MorrisonM
  • 9C. O’NeillF
  • 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
  • 11P. SmythF
Coach: M. O'Neill

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Georgia402202-22
1Northern Ireland422040+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Northern Ireland won 1–0 at Georgia. The model had leaned towards a win for Georgia at 38% and given a win for Northern Ireland 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Shea Charles 90+9' for Northern Ireland.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.