25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina UEFA Nations League prediction & result

National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw
Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Poland, 30% draw, 29% Bosnia & Herzegovina — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Poland at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Poland4%Draw93%Bosnia & Herzegovina3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jakub Kiwior
19'
🔁Jakub Kamińskiout: Nicola Zalewski
24'
32'
Kerim Alajbegovic
38'
Zinedin Smajlovic
45'
🔁Zinedin Smajlovicout: Amar Memić
🔁Bartosz Śliszout: Wiktor Nowak
45'
🔁Jakub Kiwiorout: Przemysław Frankowski
45'
47'
Ivan Šunjić
57'
S. Barbarez
66'
🔁Ivan Šunjićout: Benjamin Tahirovic
🔁Michał Skóraśout: Karol Świderski
73'
78'
🔁Ermedin Demirovićout: Ermin Mahmić
81'
Sead Kolašinac
Jan Bednarek
82'
Matty Cash
86'
🔁Robert Lewandowskiout: Mateusz Zukowski
87'
89'
Amar Memić
90+1'
🔁Haris Tabakovićout: Jovo Lukić
90+1'
🔁Kerim Alajbegovicout: Armin Gigovic

Match stats — Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

57%Possession43%
14Shots9
4On target1
3Corners3

Line-ups

Poland 4-4-1-1
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 2M. CashD
  • 23K. PotulskiD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 14J. KiwiorD
  • 17M. SkóraśM
  • 6B. SliszM
  • 10P. ZielińskiM
  • 7J. KamińskiM
  • 20S. SzymańskiM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
Substitutes
  • 12M. KochalskiG
  • 22S. AbramowiczG
  • 4T. KędzioraD
  • 16W. NowakM
  • 15T. PuchaczD
  • 18M. RegułaM
  • 8K. UrbańskiM
  • 3P. WiśniewskiD
  • 11K. ŚwiderskiF
Coach: J. Urban
Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-4-2
  • 22M. ZlomislićG
  • 7Z. SmajlovićD
  • 18N. KatićD
  • 4T. MuharemovićD
  • 5S. KolašinacD
  • 20E. BajraktarevicM
  • 13I. BašićM
  • 14I. ŠunjićM
  • 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
  • 10E. DemirovićF
  • 23H. TabakovićF
Substitutes
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 12S. HamzićG
  • 21S. RadeljićD
  • 9N. OmerovićF
  • 2N. MujakićD
  • 15A. MemićM
  • 3A. MalicD
  • 16Ermin MahmićM
  • 11J. LukićF
Coach: S. Barbarez

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Poland411274+34
2Bosnia & Herzegovina422063+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • 14 October 2020Poland 3–0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
  • 7 September 2020Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–2 PolandUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina

Poland

GoalsAssists

  • R. Lewandowski30

Bosnia & Herzegovina

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Poland and Bosnia & Herzegovina drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Poland at 41% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.