Sweden vs Romania UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Sweden 2-1 Romania.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Sweden, 29% draw, 39% Romania — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Romania at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sweden vs Romania
Line-ups
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 6E. HolmD
- 15C. StarfeltD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 4E. StroudD
- 21A. BernhardssonM
- 7L. BergvallM
- 18Y. AyariM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 9A. IsakF
- 23M. EllborgG
- 14H. EkdalD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 2J. MellbergD
- 10B. NygrenF
- 22E. SkoglundD
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 1I. RaduG
- 4A. CoubișD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 5V. GhițăD
- 2A. RațiuM
- 6T. BăluțăM
- 18R. MarinM
- 11N. BancuM
- 14I. HagiM
- 20D. ManF
- 9L. MunteanuF
- 19F. TănaseM
- 10N. StanciuM
- 17V. ScreciuM
- 8D. OlaruM
- 13V. MihăilăF
- 21M. IlieD
- 12O. HindrichG
- 23L. EissatD
- 22V. DragomirM
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sweden vs Romania
- 15 November 2019Romania 0–2 SwedenEuro Championship
- 23 March 2019Sweden 2–1 RomaniaEuro Championship
- 27 March 2018Romania 1–0 SwedenFriendlies
Leading scorers: Sweden and Romania
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres40
Romania
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sweden beat Romania 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Romania at 39% and given a win for Sweden 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alexander Isak 20' for Sweden, Dennis Man 29' for Romania, Viktor Gyökeres 43' for Sweden.