25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Türkiye vs France UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Turka Kocaeli Stadium, Izmit
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Türkiye 0-1 France.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Türkiye, 26% draw, 50% France — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts France at 50% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Türkiye0%Draw3%France97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Arda Güler
42'
54'
⚽Kylian Mbappéassist: Michael Olise
59'
🔁Kylian Mbappéout: Désiré Doue
Salih Özcan
68'
72'
Dayot Upamecano
🔁Can Yilmaz Uzunout: Kerem Aktürkoğlu
75'
🔁Oğuz Aydınout: Eren Elmalı
76'
78'
🔁Michael Oliseout: Bradley Barcola
78'
🔁Rayan Cherkiout: Eduardo Camavinga
•Uğurcan Çakır
86'
Uğurcan Çakır
87'
🔁Baris Alper Yilmazout: Altay Bayındır
88'
🔁Ismail Yüksekout: Melih Kabasakal
88'
90'
🔁Ousmane Dembéléout: Esteban Lepaul
90+3'
Manu Koné
🔁Ferdi Kadıoğluout: Deniz Gül
90+3'
90+3'
Esteban Lepaul

Match stats — Türkiye vs France

36%Possession64%
12Shots12
3On target4
5Corners3

Line-ups

Türkiye 3-4-2-1
  • 1U. ÇakırG
  • 2Z. ÇelikD
  • 3M. DemiralD
  • 14A. BardakcıD
  • 18O. AydınM
  • 16İ. YüksekM
  • 5S. ÖzcanM
  • 20F. KadıoğluM
  • 10A. GülerM
  • 11C. UzunM
  • 21B. YılmazF
Substitutes
  • 9D. GülF
  • 23O. KocukG
  • 19Y. AkgünF
  • 17İ. KahveciM
  • 6M. KabasakalM
  • 15O. KabakD
  • 22A. ŞimşirM
  • 4E. TopçuD
  • 7K. AktürkoğluF
Coach: V. Montella
France 4-3-3
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 5J. KoundéD
  • 4D. UpamecanoD
  • 17M. LacroixD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 9R. CherkiM
  • 8M. KonéM
  • 14A. RabiotM
  • 11M. OliseF
  • 7O. DembéléF
  • 10Kylian MbappéF
Substitutes
  • 23J. ButezG
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 21L. da CunhaM
  • 13A. DioufM
  • 20D. DouéF
  • 22J. JacquetD
  • 2P. KaluluD
  • 19E. LepaulF
  • 1G. RestesG
Coach: Z. Zidane

Form going into Türkiye vs France

Türkiye

No earlier matches on record this season.

France

All competitions we cover

  • L4-6England18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Türkiye4004211-90
1France431072+510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Türkiye vs France

  • 14 October 2019France 1–1 TürkiyeEuro Championship
  • 8 June 2019Türkiye 2–0 FranceEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Türkiye and France

Türkiye

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

France

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

France won 1–0 at Türkiye. The model had made a win for France its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Kylian Mbappé 54' for France. Sent off: Uğurcan Çakır (Türkiye) 87'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.