The model rates their attack at 1.50× the league average and their defence at 0.61× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — the model rates them above average at both ends. Next they travel to Italy in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September 2026, a match the model gives them 35%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Belgium vs Italy
Belgium travel to Italy on 25 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 35% Belgium, 31% draw and 34% Italy, with a most likely scoreline of 0-1. It projects 1.14 expected goals for Belgium against 1.10. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Full preview and model analysis for Belgium vs Italy