Galway United
vs
Shelbourne
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Galway United 2–1 Shelbourne
The model makes it 40% Galway United, 29% draw, 31% Shelbourne — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Galway United 1.54, Shelbourne 1.24.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Galway United vs Shelbourne
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Galway United wins, grey are draws, red are Shelbourne wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galway United at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Galway United vs Shelbourne
Galway United
- W3-1away to Sligo Rovers14 September 2026
- L2-3Bohemians11 September 2026
- D1-1Shelbourne28 August 2026
- W2-1away to Dundalk21 August 2026
- D0-0Drogheda United7 August 2026
Shelbourne
- L1-2Drogheda United14 September 2026
- L0-1Derry City11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Shamrock Rovers4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Galway United28 August 2026
- L1-2St Patrick's Athletic9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Galway United | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 37 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Galway United and Shelbourne
Galway United
- K. Twardek8 goals6 assists
Shelbourne
- H. Wood7 goals5 assists
- J. Martin6 goals2 assists
- D. Kelly6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Galway United carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.17 for Shelbourne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Galway United and 1.24 for Shelbourne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galway United rate 0.53 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shelbourne rate 0.45 and 1.79.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galway United the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Galway United against 1.24 for Shelbourne. Galway United's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.79 for Shelbourne.