Hassania Agadir
vs
Renaissance Berkane
Botola Pro prediction
Our model says: Hassania Agadir 0–1 Renaissance Berkane
The model makes it 33% Hassania Agadir, 28% draw, 39% Renaissance Berkane — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Hassania Agadir 1.22, Renaissance Berkane 1.37.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Hassania Agadir's rating is built from 34 Botola Pro matches and Renaissance Berkane's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 518 matches.
Key facts
- Hassania Agadir are 3rd on 7 points from 4 games; Renaissance Berkane are 12th on 3 points from 3 games — Botola Pro.
- Hassania Agadir have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FAR Rabat.
- Renaissance Berkane are unbeaten in their last 3 games (0 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to CR Khemis Zemamra.
- Last 6 meetings: Renaissance Berkane 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 June 2026, ended Hassania Agadir 1–0 Renaissance Berkane.
More Botola Pro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hassania Agadir vs Renaissance Berkane
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Renaissance Berkane at 39% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hassania Agadir vs Renaissance Berkane
Hassania Agadir
Botola Pro
- D2-2FAR Rabat12 October 2026
- W5-2away to CR Khemis Zemamra8 October 2026
- L1-2Maghreb Fès3 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kawkab Marrakech27 September 2026
Renaissance Berkane
Botola Pro
- D2-2CR Khemis Zemamra13 October 2026
- D0-0away to UTS Rabat8 October 2026
- D0-0away to Moghreb Tetouan27 September 2026
What these results say
- Hassania Agadir scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hassania Agadir conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Hassania Agadir had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hassania Agadir | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
| 12 | Renaissance Berkane | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hassania Agadir vs Renaissance Berkane
- 14 June 2026Hassania Agadir 1–0 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 4 March 2026Renaissance Berkane 2–1 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
- 13 April 2025Hassania Agadir 2–0 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 23 November 2024Renaissance Berkane 2–1 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
- 10 March 2024Hassania Agadir 0–2 Renaissance BerkaneBotola Pro
- 4 November 2023Renaissance Berkane 0–0 Hassania AgadirBotola Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hassania Agadir carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.44 for Renaissance Berkane. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Hassania Agadir and 1.37 for Renaissance Berkane. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hassania Agadir rate 0.71 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Renaissance Berkane rate 0.60 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hassania Agadir, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Renaissance Berkane the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hassania Agadir against 1.37 for Renaissance Berkane. Hassania Agadir's attack/defence rating is 0.71/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.38 for Renaissance Berkane.
How the model reaches 39% for Renaissance Berkane to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Renaissance Berkane to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Hassania Agadir's ratings add 30 points and Renaissance Berkane's ratings take away 24 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage33%−2
- Hassania Agadir's ratings63%+30
- Renaissance Berkane's ratings39%−24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Season stats
Hassania Agadir at home · Renaissance Berkane away
League matches only, Botola Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hassania AgadirRenaissance Berkane
Hassania Agadir are 3rd after 4 Botola Pro matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Renaissance Berkane are 12th after 3 (between 6th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Botola Pro matches this season: Hassania Agadir 4, Renaissance Berkane 3.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.