Independiente Medellin
vs
Once Caldas
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Independiente Medellin 1–0 Once Caldas
The model makes it 46% Independiente Medellin, 28% draw, 26% Once Caldas — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 1.75, Once Caldas 1.06.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Independiente Medellin are 6th on 20 points from 11 games; Once Caldas are 11th on 12 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Independiente Medellin have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Millonarios.
- Once Caldas have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Bucaramanga.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente Medellin 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente Medellin.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 46% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
- D2-2Millonarios30 September 2026
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucaramanga18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chico12 September 2026
Once Caldas
- L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima16 September 2026
- L1-2Deportivo Cali13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Chico5 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente Medellin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Once Caldas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Once Caldas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 20 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
- 3 April 2026Once Caldas 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 13 October 2025Once Caldas 1–5 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 20 April 2025Independiente Medellin 2–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 28 September 2024Once Caldas 0–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 17 March 2024Independiente Medellin 1–2 Once CaldasPrimera A
- 1 October 2023Once Caldas 2–2 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Once Caldas
- D. Moreno15 goals1 assist
- J. Zapata10 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Independiente Medellin carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.48 for Once Caldas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.06 for Once Caldas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente Medellin rate 0.82 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Once Caldas rate 0.70 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente Medellin a 1.3% chance of the title and Once Caldas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente Medellin the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Independiente Medellin against 1.06 for Once Caldas. Independiente Medellin's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.47 for Once Caldas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente Medellin at home · Once Caldas away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Independiente Medellin 30, Once Caldas 32.
Independiente Medellin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Once Caldas have let in 10 there.
Once Caldas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Independiente Medellin have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Independiente Medellin
- at Atletico Nacional25 Oct · Primera Awin 22%
- at Internacional de Bogota29 Oct · Primera Awin 36%
- vs Alianza Valledupar1 Nov · Primera Awin 55%
Once Caldas
- at Millonarios20 Oct · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Deportivo Pereira25 Oct · Primera Awin 51%
- vs Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · Primera Awin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.